FC Ryūkyū vs. Kagoshima United FC
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 37% across 20 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
37%
20 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$598
20 contracts
Closes
May 3, 2026
0 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 13% of their title tokens — “Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita” vs “Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita
Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0xc65258…6bb8
Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita: Ōita Trinita
0x8ff73c…3d38
Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x439e35…82f7
Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita: Kagoshima United FC
0x915eb3…ea84
Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita - More Markets: Ōita Trinita (-1.5)
0x88fc7b…35d4
Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita: Draw (Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita)
0xf07ff2…3a60
Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0xe0cdd9…7a6d
Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xc0ca93…26cd
Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita - More Markets: Ōita Trinita (-2.5)
0x181e34…d370
Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita - More Markets: Kagoshima United FC (-2.5)
0xf7b2d5…42fa
Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x58a705…db3a
Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita - More Markets: Kagoshima United FC (-1.5)
0x9d9d39…1252
Cluster 2
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC: Incheon United FC
0x10cbc2…77dd
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x5d58f6…ee3d
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC - More Markets: Incheon United FC (-2.5)
0x4ce71d…a7ed
Cluster 3
United States vs. Paraguay
Cluster 4
FC Imabari vs. Kōchi United SC - More Markets: O/U
Cluster 5
Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs. FC Ryūkyū - More Markets: Tegevajaro Miyazaki
Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs. FC Ryūkyū - More Markets: Tegevajaro Miyazaki (-2.5)
0xeba801…f645
What moved the line
- May 2Incheon United FC (-2.5)↓17pp35→18¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Kagoshima United FC (-2.5)↑5pp32→37¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Ōita Trinita (-1.5)↑5pp33→38¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Tegevajaro Miyazaki (-2.5)↑5pp32→37¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Incheon United FC↓4pp32→28¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.