FC Tōkyō vs. FC Mito Holly Hock - More Markets: FC Mito Holly Hock (-2.5)
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 28% across 20 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
28%
20 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$10
20 contracts
Top contract
9¢
$10 · Polymarket
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock” vs “Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock
Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock - More Markets: FC Mito Holly Hock (-2.5)
0x317f8e…e834
Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: Kashima Antlers
0xda16f5…3b65
Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: Draw (Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock)
0x701ae4…dfa5
Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: FC Mito Holly Hock
0x7c2edc…941e
Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x081084…5e13
Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x9a04eb…c058
Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x0020fd…fde4
Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock - More Markets: Kashima Antlers (-2.5)
0x6b096c…3965
Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock - More Markets: Kashima Antlers (-1.5)
0xe7a530…9059
Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xd385a3…17a7
Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock - More Markets: FC Mito Holly Hock (-1.5)
0x016905…b20d
Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x2f00d8…2029
Cluster 2
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets: Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5)
0x2ae2eb…68c8
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x635cbd…4f96
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x85c5f0…7cdb
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets: Kawasaki Frontale (-2.5)
0x3c1aa9…576e
Cluster 3
FC Tōkyō vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba - More Markets
FC Tōkyō vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x371c76…f813
FC Tōkyō vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba - More Markets: JEF United Ichihara Chiba (-2.5)
0x33b4f0…ef17
FC Tōkyō vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba - More Markets: JEF United Ichihara Chiba (-1.5)
0x6d4f0c…5c80
FC Tōkyō vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba - More Markets: FC Tōkyō (-1.5)
0x3724ce…8650
What moved the line
- May 3JEF United Ichihara Chiba (-2.5)↑13pp9→22¢ · Polymarket
- May 3JEF United Ichihara Chiba (-1.5)↑10pp10→20¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Kashima Antlers (-2.5)↑4pp32→36¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Kawasaki Frontale (-2.5)↓4pp33→29¢ · Polymarket
- May 3FC Mito Holly Hock (-2.5)↑3pp34→37¢ · Polymarket
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 23 min ago.