Will Adéla be featured on Midnight Sun (Deluxe) — Zara Larsson
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 29% across 16 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
29%
16 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$53K
16 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
243 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
11 clusters across 16 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 7% of their title tokens — “What will Markwayne Mullin say during Fox News Sunday” vs “Will Sunrisers Hyderabad win the IPL”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
What will Markwayne Mullin say during Fox News Sunday
What will Markwayne Mullin say during Fox News Sunday?: National Security
KXFOXNEWSMENTION-26MAY03-NATI
What will Markwayne Mullin say during Fox News Sunday?: Deport / Deportation
KXFOXNEWSMENTION-26MAY03-DEPO
What will Markwayne Mullin say during Fox News Sunday?: TSA
KXFOXNEWSMENTION-26MAY03-TSA
What will Markwayne Mullin say during Fox News Sunday?: Shutdown / Shut Down
KXFOXNEWSMENTION-26MAY03-SHUT
What will Markwayne Mullin say during Fox News Sunday?: Iran
KXFOXNEWSMENTION-26MAY03-IRAN
What will Markwayne Mullin say during Fox News Sunday?: Oil / Gas / Gasoline
KXFOXNEWSMENTION-26MAY03-OIL
Cluster 2
Will Sunrisers Hyderabad win the IPL
Will Sunrisers Hyderabad win the IPL?: Sunrisers Hyderabad
KXIPL-26-SRH
Cluster 3
will it rain in new york city on sunday
Will it **rain** in New York City on Sunday?: Rain in NYC
KXRAINNYC-26MAY03-T0
Cluster 4
will pinkpantheress be featured on drake's album 'iceman'
Will PinkPantheress be featured on Drake's album 'Iceman'?: PinkPantheress
KXFEATUREDRAKE-27-PIN
Cluster 5
will esdeekid be featured on drake's album 'iceman'
Will EsDeeKid be featured on Drake's album 'Iceman'?: EsDeeKid
KXFEATUREDRAKE-27-ESD
Cluster 6
will justin bieber be featured on drake's album 'iceman'
Will Justin Bieber be featured on Drake's album 'Iceman'?: Justin Bieber
KXFEATUREDRAKE-27-JUS
Cluster 7
will playboi carti be featured on drake's album 'iceman'
Will Playboi Carti be featured on Drake's album 'Iceman'?: Playboi Carti
KXFEATUREDRAKE-27-PLA
Cluster 8
Will Sunday Night Football win the 47th Annual Sports Emmy Awards for Outstanding Live Sports Series
Cluster 9
will kanye west / ye be featured on drake's album 'iceman'
Will Kanye West / Ye be featured on Drake's album 'Iceman'?: Kanye West / Ye
KXFEATUREDRAKE-27-YE
Cluster 10
will metro boomin be featured on drake's album 'iceman'
Will Metro Boomin be featured on Drake's album 'Iceman'?: Metro Boomin
KXFEATUREDRAKE-27-MET
Cluster 11
Cadillac Championship: Will Ryo Hisatsune finish top 20
Cadillac Championship: Will Ryo Hisatsune finish top 20?: Ryo Hisatsune
KXPGATOP20-CAC26-RHIS
Analysis
This market is assessing whether Adéla will appear as a featured artist on the deluxe edition of Zara Larsson's album Midnight Sun. The 29% probability reflects moderate skepticism about the collaboration's likelihood. Kalshi traders price it at 30%, suggesting slightly higher odds than Polymarket's 13% assessment, though both lean toward non-inclusion. The primary factors affecting this probability are the album's official tracklist release and any announced collaborations from either artist's camp. The resolution hinges on whether the deluxe edition's final tracklist—when officially published—includes Adéla as a credited featured artist. Supply-side factors like studio records, label statements, or pre-release promotional announcements would provide concrete evidence before official publication.
- ›Official tracklist publication for Midnight Sun (Deluxe) edition will definitively resolve whether Adéla appears as a featured artist
- ›Prior collaboration history between Zara Larsson and Adéla, or lack thereof, may indicate likelihood of a new feature
- ›The timing of album announcement, any teased features, or official promotional materials mentioning Adéla would shift market pricing
- ›Record label or artist social media statements confirming or denying the collaboration would provide clear resolution signals
- ›The broader context of similar deluxe edition additions—whether bonus features are typically collaborations or solo recordings
What moved the line
- May 2PinkPantheress↓18pp45→27¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Will Ryo Hisatsune finish top 20?: Ryo Hisatsune↓16pp18→2¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Shutdown / Shut Down↑15pp51→66¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 28PinkPantheress↓13pp43→30¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 27Playboi Carti↑12pp16→28¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.