FK Orenburg vs. FK Pari Nizhnii Novgorod - More Markets: FK Orenburg (-2.5)
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 39% across 19 contracts. Kalshi at 41%, Polymarket at 39%.
Implied probability
Kalshi
41%
4 contracts
Polymarket
39%
15 contracts
Cross-venue gap
2pp
tight
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$4K
19 contracts
Closes
May 17, 2026
14 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 41¢ · Polymarket 39¢ · 2pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (39¢, 15 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (41¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
15 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Will Boston Breach win” vs “Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC - More Markets”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Boston Breach win
Cluster 2
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC - More Markets
Cluster 3
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: FK Bodø/Glimt
Cluster 4
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC - More Markets
Cluster 5
Will Paris Gentle Mates win the Boston Breach vs. Paris Gentle Mates match
Cluster 6
Will over 3.5 maps be played in the Boston Breach vs. Paris Gentle Mates Call of Duty match
Cluster 7
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x92fa6c…9a3a
Cluster 8
Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x64562d…92f6
Cluster 9
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x8c7c03…b8bb
Cluster 10
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets: Tōkyō Verdy
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets: Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5)
0x2ae2eb…68c8
Cluster 11
Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x4612ca…3182
Cluster 12
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Henan FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Henan FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x34dea0…204d
Cluster 13
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Ulsan HD FC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Ulsan HD FC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x6bf7a4…f057
Cluster 14
Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0xc6f8d0…d7bf
Cluster 15
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0xd0a2f0…02d4
What moved the line
- May 1Over 3.5 maps↑26pp2→28¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Over 3.5 maps↑18pp28→46¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Over 3.5 maps↓18pp46→28¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Incheon United FC (-2.5)↓17pp35→18¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Liaoning Tieren FC (-2.5)↓6pp12→6¢ · Polymarket
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.