Fujieda MYFC vs. Fukushima United FC
Leader sits at 49% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 36%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Fujieda MYFC
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
36¢
Fukushima United FC
Spread
13pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 6, 2026
2 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Fujieda MYFC vs. Fukushima United FC
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations for a Japanese football match between Fujieda MYFC and Fukushima United FC. At 48%, the leading contract indicates near-parity between the favorite and second-place outcome, with meaningful divergence from that top estimate (40% runner-up) suggesting uncertainty about which team prevails. The probability reflects recent form, head-to-head history, and home-field advantages in Japanese league play. The match outcome will resolve directly when the game concludes, eliminating all remaining uncertainty. Market depth remains relatively shallow based on aggregated contract volumes, meaning significant new information about team injuries, weather, or late-season positioning could shift probabilities noticeably.
- ›Match date and kickoff time determine resolution window; delays or postponements would extend uncertainty
- ›Current league standings and points differential between teams affect baseline competitive positioning
- ›Historical head-to-head records and goal-scoring patterns influence win probability distribution
- ›Injury status of key players or roster changes announced before match day could shift market expectations
- ›Home field advantage factor and travel fatigue for the visiting team
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 5 min ago.