Gainare Tottori vs. Roasso Kumamoto
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 41% across 20 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
41%
20 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$6
20 contracts
Top contract
35¢
$3 · Polymarket
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto” vs “Sagan Tosu vs. Gainare Tottori”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto
Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto: Draw (Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto)
0xeb0a6c…e3e4
Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto: Roasso Kumamoto
0xb333ae…847a
Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x0a8c9d…15b7
Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto: Giravanz Kitakyūshū
0x293b9d…3984
Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto - More Markets: Giravanz Kitakyūshū (-2.5)
0x218550…9d13
Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x9e0a79…5073
Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x1b2ae8…f42c
Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto - More Markets: Roasso Kumamoto (-2.5)
0x13917b…2bc5
Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto - More Markets: Giravanz Kitakyūshū (-1.5)
0x226e5a…44b2
Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xb972b7…e015
Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x59b299…2b8a
Cluster 2
Sagan Tosu vs. Gainare Tottori
Sagan Tosu vs. Gainare Tottori - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0xc62c80…3ca6
Sagan Tosu vs. Gainare Tottori: Draw (Sagan Tosu vs. Gainare Tottori)
0x8bfb29…1d08
Sagan Tosu vs. Gainare Tottori: Gainare Tottori
0x2e8cb9…fdb0
Sagan Tosu vs. Gainare Tottori - More Markets: Gainare Tottori (-1.5)
0xe81828…a3a4
Sagan Tosu vs. Gainare Tottori - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xb085f4…d24e
Sagan Tosu vs. Gainare Tottori - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x57869b…5019
Sagan Tosu vs. Gainare Tottori - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x2d68ef…5be9
Sagan Tosu vs. Gainare Tottori - More Markets: Sagan Tosu (-1.5)
0xde051c…f56b
Sagan Tosu vs. Gainare Tottori - More Markets: Sagan Tosu (-2.5)
0x5900f7…c899
What moved the line
- May 3Gainare Tottori↓8pp40→32¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Sagan Tosu (-2.5)↑4pp32→36¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Gainare Tottori (-1.5)↑4pp33→37¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Roasso Kumamoto (-2.5)↑3pp34→37¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 13 min ago.