Gamba Ōsaka vs. Vissel Kōbe
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 31% across 20 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
31%
20 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
−4pp
12h ago
24h volume
$5
20 contracts
Closes
May 6, 2026
2 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka” vs “Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka
Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka: Nagoya Grampus
0x25132a…c79e
Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka: Gamba Ōsaka
0xec591d…0446
Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka - More Markets: Gamba Ōsaka (-2.5)
0xa41811…3aa9
Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka - More Markets: Nagoya Grampus (-1.5)
0x0524ea…9f8d
Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0xec59e7…8852
Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x164f65…9ef8
Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x6cfc8d…7b8f
Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xe57d5e…f288
Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xc12420…a052
Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka - More Markets: Gamba Ōsaka (-1.5)
0x97c68a…0456
Cluster 2
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe - More Markets: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-2.5)
0x838893…f108
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe - More Markets: Vissel Kōbe (-1.5)
0xc674e6…b72c
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe: Sanfrecce Hiroshima
0x1c22d5…7c68
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe: Draw (Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe)
0x0324af…007a
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x46afc0…7592
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe: Vissel Kōbe
0xdb1e98…9016
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xdfd081…ff31
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0xa5be96…39c2
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x840caa…6f30
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe - More Markets: Vissel Kōbe (-2.5)
0x0dd98d…b64e
Analysis
This 35% probability reflects market expectations that Gamba Ōsaka will achieve a positive result (win or draw) in an upcoming match against Vissel Kōbe. The current level suggests traders view Vissel Kōbe as slight favorites, likely based on recent form, head-to-head records, or home-field advantage. Key factors influencing this probability include each team's current league position and recent performance streak, injury status of key players, and whether the match is played at a neutral venue or one team's home ground. The probability will shift materially once the match is played, with outcome data immediately resolving the uncertainty. Until then, any significant roster changes, coaching announcements, or official confirmation of venue could move the market. Low trading volume on related contracts suggests limited liquidity, which may cause wider bid-ask spreads and larger price swings from individual trades.
- ›Current league standings and recent match results for both Gamba Ōsaka and Vissel Kōbe in the 2026 season
- ›Confirmed starting lineups and availability of key players, particularly any injuries or suspensions announced before match day
- ›Whether the match is played at Gamba's home venue, Vissel's home venue, or a neutral location
- ›Head-to-head historical performance between these teams over the past 2-3 seasons
- ›Match date and time confirmation, as any postponement or schedule change could affect team preparation and odds adjustment
What moved the line
- May 3Vissel Kōbe (-2.5)↑15pp11→26¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Vissel Kōbe (-1.5)↑14pp12→26¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-2.5)↑9pp9→18¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Sanfrecce Hiroshima↑6pp43→49¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Gamba Ōsaka (-1.5)↑3pp30→33¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.