Gamba Ōsaka vs. Vissel Kōbe - More Markets
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 30% across 20 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
30%
20 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
−5pp
12h ago
24h volume
$5
20 contracts
Closes
May 6, 2026
2 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka” vs “Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe - More Markets”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka
Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka: Nagoya Grampus
0x25132a…c79e
Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka: Draw (Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka)
0xde13b8…b1c5
Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka - More Markets: Gamba Ōsaka (-1.5)
0x97c68a…0456
Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka - More Markets: Nagoya Grampus (-2.5)
0x0a8118…d88b
Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0xec59e7…8852
Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xc12420…a052
Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka - More Markets: Nagoya Grampus (-1.5)
0x0524ea…9f8d
Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka - More Markets: Gamba Ōsaka (-2.5)
0xa41811…3aa9
Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x6cfc8d…7b8f
Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xe57d5e…f288
Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x164f65…9ef8
Cluster 2
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe - More Markets
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe - More Markets: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-2.5)
0x838893…f108
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xced570…3f21
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe - More Markets: Vissel Kōbe (-2.5)
0x0dd98d…b64e
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x840caa…6f30
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0xa5be96…39c2
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe - More Markets: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-1.5)
0x5cd99b…877d
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x46afc0…7592
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe - More Markets: Vissel Kōbe (-1.5)
0xc674e6…b72c
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xdfd081…ff31
Analysis
This contract estimates a 35% probability that Gamba Ōsaka will score more goals than Vissel Kōbe in an upcoming J-League match. The probability reflects relative team form, home-field advantage if applicable, and recent scoring patterns. Movement in this market would depend on team selection announcements, injury updates to key players, or recent performance trends in the days before the match. The primary catalyst for resolving this uncertainty is the match itself, which determines actual goals scored. Related Nagoya Grampus contracts show market participants also weighting defensive strength; the relatively low 10-cent price on Vissel conceding 2.5+ goals suggests defensively solid opponents are expected.
- ›Gamba Ōsaka's recent goal-scoring rate and conversion efficiency in J-League play
- ›Vissel Kōbe's defensive record and goals-against average over recent matches
- ›Team lineup confirmation and availability of key attacking or defensive players before match day
- ›Historical head-to-head scoring patterns between these two clubs
- ›Match venue and typical home-field scoring advantage, if applicable
What moved the line
- May 3Vissel Kōbe (-2.5)↑15pp11→26¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Vissel Kōbe (-1.5)↑14pp12→26¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-2.5)↑9pp9→18¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Nagoya Grampus (-2.5)↑3pp34→37¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Gamba Ōsaka (-1.5)↑3pp30→33¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 13 min ago.