SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 9 outcomes9 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 7 min agoCloses May 5, 2026 · 1d20pp · 9h

Gangwon FC vs. Pohang Steelers FC - More Markets

Leader sits at 65% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 46%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

65%

O/U 1.5

runner-up 46¢leader 65¢

Outcomes

9

winner-take-all

Runner-up

46¢

Both Teams to Score

Spread

19pp

contested

24h volume

$29

thin orderbook

Closes

May 5, 2026

1 days

Venue

Polymarket

9 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayO/U 1.5: 66% (3 days, 2 points)O/U 1.5: 66% on 2026-05-03Both Teams to Score: 48% (3 days, 2 points)Both Teams to Score: 48% on 2026-05-02O/U 2.5: 39% on 2026-05-02
O/U 1.566¢Both Teams to Score48¢O/U 2.539¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 3d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This market estimates a 45% probability that Gangwon FC defeats Pohang Steelers FC in their upcoming match. The estimate is based on limited trading activity across five related contracts on Polymarket, with relatively low daily volume ($265–$50 across top pairs). The K League 1 match outcome depends on team form, head-to-head history, injury status, and home-field advantage, with recent performance trends and lineup changes likely to shift probabilities as the fixture date approaches. Resolution occurs at the final whistle, making pre-match updates to betting odds the primary window for uncertainty reduction before the contract settles.

  • Polymarket trading volume remains low ($50–$265 per contract in top pairs), indicating limited liquidity and potentially wider bid-ask spreads than deeply-traded sports futures
  • The 45% leading price reflects one trader's or group's position rather than an arithmetic average; the runner-up contract at 21% suggests material disagreement on win probability across contracts
  • K League 1 standings, recent form, and head-to-head records between Gangwon and Pohang will be the primary analytical inputs for serious traders before match day
  • No injury reports, roster changes, or official lineups are reflected in current pricing if announced after market creation
  • The outcome is binary and fully resolved at the final whistle, with no ambiguity in settlement criteria

What moved the line

  • May 2Pohang Steelers FC (-2.5)24pp3713¢ · Polymarket
  • May 2Pohang Steelers FC (-1.5)23pp3512¢ · Polymarket
  • May 2Gangwon FC (-2.5)15pp3318¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3Gangwon FC (-2.5)10pp188¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3O/U 4.510pp199¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 7 min ago.