Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Ulsan HD FC
Leader sits at 36% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 36%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Ulsan HD FC
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
36¢
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$95
thin orderbook
Closes
May 5, 2026
1 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Ulsan HD FC
Analysis
This 36% probability represents the market's assessment that Ulsan HD FC will win an upcoming match against Gimcheon Sangmu FC. Markets are pricing Ulsan as a slight favorite, with relatively balanced odds against both a Gimcheon victory and a draw. The price reflects K League team performance data, recent form, and head-to-head history. Movement would likely follow injury announcements, lineup confirmations, or shifts in either team's recent results. The match itself will resolve all uncertainty once played, with the outcome determined by goals scored across 90+ minutes of regulation play.
- ›Ulsan HD FC's win probability (36%) implies Gimcheon Sangmu FC is priced as a slight underdog, with 36% of outcomes distributed among other results (draw, Gimcheon win)
- ›Over 1.5 goals markets at 73¢ suggest traders expect a moderately attacking fixture; under 4.5 at 13¢ indicates low probability of very high-scoring outcomes
- ›Relatively low trading volume ($86 24h on the main winner contract) suggests limited liquidity and potential sensitivity to new information such as team news or weather
- ›K League seasonal form, recent head-to-head records, and player availability for both clubs will materially influence the outcome
- ›A draw is priced at 28¢, only 8 percentage points below either pure win outcome, indicating genuine three-way competitive uncertainty
What moved the line
- May 2Draw (Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Ulsan HD FC)↓9pp38→29¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 9 min ago.