Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Ulsan HD FC - More Markets
Leader sits at 73% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 54%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
O/U 1.5
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
54¢
Both Teams to Score
Spread
19pp
contested
24h volume
$58
thin orderbook
Closes
May 5, 2026
2 days
Venue
Polymarket
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Ulsan HD FC - More Markets
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Ulsan HD FC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x958037…d5e6
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Ulsan HD FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0xc2ca50…51b6
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Ulsan HD FC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x6bf7a4…f057
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Ulsan HD FC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0xf3ccec…9b09
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Ulsan HD FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x549c4a…6600
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Ulsan HD FC - More Markets: Ulsan HD FC (-2.5)
0x468b98…5e2f
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Ulsan HD FC - More Markets: Gimcheon Sangmu FC (-2.5)
0x6d870a…98af
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Ulsan HD FC - More Markets: Ulsan HD FC (-1.5)
0x23088d…3169
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Ulsan HD FC - More Markets: Gimcheon Sangmu FC (-1.5)
0xcd6e15…79ca
Analysis
The 74% probability indicates that Gimcheon Sangmu FC is favored to beat Ulsan HD FC in an upcoming match. This assessment reflects the current market pricing across 12 contracts, with Ulsan's implied win probability at 36 cents. The probability level suggests a meaningful but not overwhelming advantage for Gimcheon. Key drivers of this pricing likely include recent team performance records, head-to-head history, player availability, and current league standings. The match result itself will resolve the question when the game is completed. Broader context includes the relative liquidity of these Korean football markets and whether any late-breaking team news emerges before kickoff. The 74% level reflects genuine uncertainty despite Gimcheon being the market favorite.
- ›Gimcheon Sangmu's recent form and current league position relative to Ulsan HD's defensive record
- ›Head-to-head historical matchup data and any patterns favoring one team in direct contests
- ›Confirmed player availability, injuries, or absences that significantly impact either team's tactical setup
- ›Home-field advantage status and travel factors, if applicable, for the scheduled venue
- ›Market contract volume and liquidity levels remain modest ($86 24h), suggesting pricing may shift with new information or larger positions
What moved the line
- May 2Ulsan HD FC (-2.5)↓24pp37→13¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Gimcheon Sangmu FC (-2.5)↓22pp35→13¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Ulsan HD FC (-1.5)↓16pp36→20¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Gimcheon Sangmu FC (-1.5)↓11pp31→20¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Gimcheon Sangmu FC (-2.5)↓7pp13→6¢ · Polymarket
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Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 23 min ago.