Águilas Doradas Rionegro vs. Once Caldas - More Markets: Águilas Doradas Rionegro (-2.5)
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 39% across 5 contracts. Kalshi at 33%, Polymarket at 50% — a 17pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
33%
3 contracts
Polymarket
50%
2 contracts
Cross-venue gap
17pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$95
5 contracts
Top contract
10¢
$88 · Kalshi
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 33¢ · Polymarket 50¢ · 17pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (33¢, 3 contracts) and sell on Polymarket (50¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
2 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 13% of their title tokens — “Ind. Medellin vs Aguilas Doradas Rionegro Winner” vs “Colombia Primera A: Winner”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Ind. Medellin vs Aguilas Doradas Rionegro Winner
Ind. Medellin vs Aguilas Doradas Rionegro Winner?: Aguilas Doradas Rionegro
KXDIMAYORGAME-26MAY03DIMADR-ADR
Ind. Medellin vs Aguilas Doradas Rionegro Winner?: Ind. Medellin
KXDIMAYORGAME-26MAY03DIMADR-DIM
Ind. Medellin vs Aguilas Doradas Rionegro Winner?: Tie
KXDIMAYORGAME-26MAY03DIMADR-TIE
Cluster 2
Colombia Primera A: Winner
What moved the line
- May 1Aguilas Doradas Rionegro↑3pp9→12¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 28Winner: Once Caldas↑3pp47→50¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28Winner: Águilas Doradas↑3pp47→50¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 6 min ago.