SimpleFunctions
20 contractsKalshi + Polymarketrefreshed 4 min ago

Gwangju FC vs. Daejeon Hana Citizen FC

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 31% across 20 contracts. Kalshi at 31%, Polymarket at 31%.

Implied probability

31%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

31%

2 contracts

Polymarket

31%

18 contracts

Cross-venue gap

0pp

tight

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$414

20 contracts

Top contract

28¢

$253 · Polymarket

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 32% (9 days, 9 points)Aggregate: 32% on 2026-05-03
Aggregate of 20 contracts · 9d

Bracket families

5 clusters across 20 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters

The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC” vs “Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC vs. Gwangju FC”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.

Cluster 1

Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC

12 contracts$383

Cluster 2

Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC vs. Gwangju FC

4 contracts$21

Cluster 3

Daejeon Citizen vs Incheon Utd Winner

2 contracts$0

Cluster 4

Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana

1 contract$11

Cluster 5

K-League: Winner: Daejeon Hana Citizen

1 contract$0

What moved the line

  • May 2Incheon United FC (-1.5)18pp3517¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3Gwangju FC18pp2810¢ · Polymarket
  • May 2Incheon United FC (-2.5)17pp3518¢ · Polymarket
  • May 2Daejeon Hana Citizen FC (-2.5)14pp3420¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC9pp6271¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.