Gwangju FC vs. Daejeon Hana Citizen FC - More Markets
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 30% across 19 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
30%
19 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
−42pp
7h ago
24h volume
$383
19 contracts
Closes
May 5, 2026
2 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC” vs “Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC vs. Gwangju FC - More Markets”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC: Incheon United FC
0x10cbc2…77dd
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC: Daejeon Hana Citizen FC
0x76a37b…687c
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x5d58f6…ee3d
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC - More Markets: Incheon United FC (-2.5)
0x4ce71d…a7ed
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC: Draw (Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC)
0x747211…dabc
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x322393…b00a
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x14ce80…b44a
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x73881e…c695
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x110c54…a329
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC - More Markets: Daejeon Hana Citizen FC (-2.5)
0x2db8ba…2d23
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC - More Markets: Daejeon Hana Citizen FC (-1.5)
0x1b4942…ebf9
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC - More Markets: Incheon United FC (-1.5)
0x8d81ee…e872
Cluster 2
Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC vs. Gwangju FC - More Markets
Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC vs. Gwangju FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0xd12dde…4dcd
Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC vs. Gwangju FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x8e448c…d5bf
Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC vs. Gwangju FC - More Markets: Gwangju FC (-1.5)
0x6c4d81…fbcf
Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC vs. Gwangju FC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x8917c8…3bcb
Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC vs. Gwangju FC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xb9f94b…137d
Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC vs. Gwangju FC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0xa773da…49ac
Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC vs. Gwangju FC - More Markets: Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC (-2.5)
0xa885d7…ae71
Analysis
The 72% probability reflects the market's assessment that Gwangju FC is favored to win in their matchup, based on aggregated contracts from Polymarket. The estimate reflects relative team strength, recent form, and head-to-head historical records. K League 1 standings and recent performance metrics—including goals scored, defensive record, and injury status—would be primary drivers of movement in either direction. The fixture date itself represents the key event that will resolve this uncertainty; outcomes depend on actual match performance rather than external developments. Related markets show mixed conviction across different bet types, with low trading volumes suggesting limited liquidity may increase volatility in probability estimates.
- ›Gwangju FC's recent form and current league position compared to their opponent
- ›Head-to-head historical record and performance differentials between the two teams
- ›Injury or roster availability status for key players on either side
- ›Market depth on Polymarket appears limited (low 24h volumes across related contracts), meaning individual large trades could move probabilities significantly
- ›The 72% leader price exceeds the runner-up at 52%, indicating some market consensus but not overwhelming agreement across all contract specifications
What moved the line
- May 2Incheon United FC (-1.5)↓18pp35→17¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Incheon United FC (-2.5)↓17pp35→18¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Gwangju FC (-1.5)↓17pp33→16¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Daejeon Hana Citizen FC (-2.5)↓14pp34→20¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Incheon United FC (-1.5)↑8pp17→25¢ · Polymarket
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 22 min ago.