Haras El Hodood SC vs. Tala'ea El Gaish SC - More Markets
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 37% across 20 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
37%
20 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
+11pp
35h ago
24h volume
$0
20 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
184 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Tala'ea El Gaish SC vs. Ghazl El Mahalla SC” vs “Haras El Hodood SC vs. ZED FC - More Markets”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Tala'ea El Gaish SC vs. Ghazl El Mahalla SC
Tala'ea El Gaish SC vs. Ghazl El Mahalla SC - More Markets: Tala'ea El Gaish SC (-1.5)
0xcfd8ae…56c9
Tala'ea El Gaish SC vs. Ghazl El Mahalla SC: Draw (Tala'ea El Gaish SC vs. Ghazl El Mahalla SC)
0x0fc637…0787
Tala'ea El Gaish SC vs. Ghazl El Mahalla SC: Tala'ea El Gaish SC
0xf309d5…6b6b
Tala'ea El Gaish SC vs. Ghazl El Mahalla SC - More Markets: Tala'ea El Gaish SC (-2.5)
0xc72274…aff4
Tala'ea El Gaish SC vs. Ghazl El Mahalla SC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xbba7de…c1f0
Tala'ea El Gaish SC vs. Ghazl El Mahalla SC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x5e259b…9efe
Tala'ea El Gaish SC vs. Ghazl El Mahalla SC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x288ff0…3634
Tala'ea El Gaish SC vs. Ghazl El Mahalla SC - More Markets: Ghazl El Mahalla SC (-1.5)
0x38d77b…87c4
Tala'ea El Gaish SC vs. Ghazl El Mahalla SC - More Markets: Ghazl El Mahalla SC (-2.5)
0x058269…1b16
Tala'ea El Gaish SC vs. Ghazl El Mahalla SC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x7b51f5…9166
Tala'ea El Gaish SC vs. Ghazl El Mahalla SC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xf2f172…fbe5
Cluster 2
Haras El Hodood SC vs. ZED FC - More Markets
Haras El Hodood SC vs. ZED FC - More Markets: Haras El Hodood SC (-1.5)
0xb14e19…075f
Haras El Hodood SC vs. ZED FC - More Markets: Haras El Hodood SC (-2.5)
0x4ba70b…576a
Haras El Hodood SC vs. ZED FC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x0691be…0c44
Haras El Hodood SC vs. ZED FC - More Markets: ZED FC (-1.5)
0x8b80ae…e3a6
Haras El Hodood SC vs. ZED FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x4cfcee…151a
Haras El Hodood SC vs. ZED FC - More Markets: ZED FC (-2.5)
0xc2e12e…531a
Haras El Hodood SC vs. ZED FC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xc61fee…dbe0
Haras El Hodood SC vs. ZED FC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xc3a5b7…20a0
Haras El Hodood SC vs. ZED FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x446a8c…ec1f
Analysis
This represents the estimated probability that Haras El Hodood SC will win their upcoming match against Tala'ea El Gaish SC. The current 26% assessment reflects a significant divergence between prediction markets: Kalshi prices the outcome at 57% while Polymarket contracts average 24%, suggesting substantial disagreement about Haras El Hodood's chances. The gap may reflect different user bases, contract structures, or liquidity levels across venues. Resolution will occur upon the match completion, with the outcome determined by official final score. Key drivers include relative team form, head-to-head history, and current league standings in the Egyptian football league. Without liquidity on Polymarket and minimal trading volume, the current aggregate probability carries limited conviction.
- ›33-percentage-point spread between venues indicates material disagreement on win probability rather than consensus pricing
- ›Polymarket's 24¢ bid reflects stronger pricing depth (13 contracts) versus Kalshi's single contract at 57¢, affecting aggregate weighting
- ›Zero 24h volume on Polymarket's Haras El Hodood contract suggests minimal recent trading and potentially stale pricing
- ›Related market on Both Teams to Score (41¢) and Haras El Hodood -2.5 spread (10¢) provide secondary indicators of expected match dynamics
- ›Match outcome depends on official final score determination; no scheduled date or postponement factors are evident in available contract data
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.