SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 9 outcomes9 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 11 min agoCloses May 7, 2026 · 3d13pp · 13h

Haras El Hodood SC vs. ZED FC - More Markets

Leader sits at 62% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 50%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

62%

O/U 1.5

runner-up 50¢leader 62¢

Outcomes

9

winner-take-all

Runner-up

50¢

Both Teams to Score

Spread

12pp

contested

24h volume

$0

thin orderbook

Closes

May 7, 2026

3 days

Venue

Polymarket

9 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayO/U 1.5: 61% on 2026-05-03Both Teams to Score: 50% on 2026-05-03O/U 2.5: 53% on 2026-05-03
O/U 1.561¢Both Teams to Score50¢O/U 2.553¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 1d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This probability represents the likelihood that Haras El Hodood SC wins their match against ZED FC. The 49% reading reflects moderate uncertainty in a three-outcome market (win/draw/loss), with the leading contract pricing Haras El Hodood's victory slightly below even odds. The current level is driven by available team strength assessments and recent form data; an increase would require stronger indicators of Haras El Hodood's competitive advantage, while a decrease would signal market participants favoring either a draw or ZED FC victory. The primary uncertainty resolver is the match itself, which determines the outcome and closes all related contracts upon completion.

  • Comparative recent performance and head-to-head record between the two clubs, if available in historical data
  • Home/away advantage, stadium conditions, and venue history for the scheduled match location
  • Team squad availability, injury status, and lineup composition as of match day
  • Market depth across the three outcome contracts—the 49% leader versus 37% runner-up suggests meaningful disagreement on win probabilities
  • Trading volume and price stability on Polymarket; low relative volume may indicate limited consensus or sparse information flow

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 11 min ago.