Henan FC vs. Liaoning Tieren FC
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 33% across 20 contracts. Kalshi at 16%, Polymarket at 34% — a 18pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
16%
1 contract
Polymarket
34%
19 contracts
Cross-venue gap
18pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
20 contracts
Top contract
16¢
$575 · Polymarket
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 16¢ · Polymarket 34¢ · 18pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (16¢, 1 contract) and sell on Polymarket (34¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
2 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Liaoning Tieren” vs “Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Henan FC”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Liaoning Tieren
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: Liaoning Tieren FC
0x767937…230b
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC - More Markets: Liaoning Tieren FC (-2.5)
0xeacd4b…9c9e
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: Chengdu Rongcheng FC
0x6c60ac…e575
Liaoning Tieren vs Chengdu Rongcheng Winner?: Liaoning Tieren
KXCHNSLGAME-26MAY05LITCHR-LIT
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x265119…772e
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC - More Markets: Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-2.5)
0x45e030…a07f
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC - More Markets: Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-1.5)
0x069e2b…e280
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC - More Markets: Liaoning Tieren FC (-1.5)
0x1da10f…ed87
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: Draw (Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC)
0x096646…ef18
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x691544…6208
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0xd79dfe…f845
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x821567…77e8
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x796d0b…4310
Cluster 2
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Henan FC
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Henan FC: Chongqing Tonglianglong FC
0x903ccc…b6d5
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Henan FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x34dea0…204d
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Henan FC - More Markets: Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (-2.5)
0x264488…7bf2
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Henan FC - More Markets: Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (-1.5)
0x7b11ba…e46e
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Henan FC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x07f191…7772
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Henan FC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0xda368d…516c
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Henan FC: Henan FC
0x87c7a1…b306
What moved the line
- May 3Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (-2.5)↑16pp14→30¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-2.5)↓10pp32→22¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Liaoning Tieren FC↓9pp25→16¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Liaoning Tieren FC (-2.5)↓6pp12→6¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Liaoning Tieren FC (-2.5)↓5pp17→12¢ · Polymarket
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 23 min ago.