Henan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 39% across 20 contracts. Kalshi at 38%, Polymarket at 39%.
Implied probability
Kalshi
38%
1 contract
Polymarket
39%
19 contracts
Cross-venue gap
1pp
tight
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$326
20 contracts
Top contract
41¢
$63 · Polymarket
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Shandong Taishan” vs “Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Henan FC”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Shandong Taishan
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: Shanghai Shenhua FC
0x0f12ad…4df5
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x20d721…2fe8
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x92fa6c…9a3a
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xff2a9a…cd1f
Shandong Taishan vs Shanghai Shenhua Winner?: Shanghai Shenhua
KXCHNSLGAME-26MAY05SHTSHS-SHS
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: Draw (Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC)
0xb941d9…4244
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x1e5ceb…d94f
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0xb2fdfb…12fc
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC - More Markets: Shanghai Shenhua FC (-2.5)
0xfa1d79…8e45
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC - More Markets: Shandong Taishan FC (-1.5)
0x8d6eb4…11cc
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: Shandong Taishan FC
0x11820e…21ac
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC - More Markets: Shandong Taishan FC (-2.5)
0x15f1cb…719f
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC - More Markets: Shanghai Shenhua FC (-1.5)
0x1602b2…5c4d
Cluster 2
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Henan FC
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Henan FC: Chongqing Tonglianglong FC
0x903ccc…b6d5
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Henan FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x34dea0…204d
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Henan FC - More Markets: Henan FC (-1.5)
0xd9d720…ab4c
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Henan FC: Henan FC
0x87c7a1…b306
Cluster 3
Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC
Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC
0xc09bd5…6667
Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x64562d…92f6
Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: Shanghai Haigang FC
0xa0abb9…77bd
What moved the line
- May 2Shanghai Shenhua FC (-2.5)↓10pp26→16¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC↓8pp30→22¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Shandong Taishan FC (-2.5)↑8pp23→31¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Shanghai Shenhua FC (-1.5)↑6pp23→29¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Chongqing Tonglianglong FC↓5pp41→36¢ · Polymarket
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 23 min ago.