SimpleFunctions
20 contractsKalshi + Polymarketrefreshed 23 min ago

Henan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 39% across 20 contracts. Kalshi at 38%, Polymarket at 39%.

Implied probability

39%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

38%

1 contract

Polymarket

39%

19 contracts

Cross-venue gap

1pp

tight

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$326

20 contracts

Top contract

41¢

$63 · Polymarket

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 35% (3 days, 3 points)Aggregate: 35% on 2026-05-03
Aggregate of 20 contracts · 3d

Bracket families

3 clusters across 20 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters

The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Shandong Taishan” vs “Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Henan FC”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.

Cluster 1

Shandong Taishan

13 contracts$220

Cluster 2

Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Henan FC

4 contracts$66

Cluster 3

Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC

3 contracts$40

What moved the line

  • May 2Shanghai Shenhua FC (-2.5)10pp2616¢ · Polymarket
  • May 2Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC8pp3022¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3Shandong Taishan FC (-2.5)8pp2331¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3Shanghai Shenhua FC (-1.5)6pp2329¢ · Polymarket
  • May 2Chongqing Tonglianglong FC5pp4136¢ · Polymarket

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 23 min ago.