SimpleFunctions
20 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 5 min agoCloses Dec 31, 2026 · 241d10pp · 9h

Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. Fujieda MYFC - More Markets

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 40% across 20 Polymarket contracts.

Implied probability

40%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

not bound

Polymarket

40%

20 contracts

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

−10pp

9h ago

24h volume

$0

20 contracts

Closes

Dec 31, 2026

241 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 42% (2 days, 2 points)Aggregate: 42% on 2026-05-03
Aggregate of 20 contracts · 2d

Bracket families

2 clusters across 20 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters

The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. AC Nagano Parceiro” vs “Fujieda MYFC vs. Fukushima United FC”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.

Cluster 1

Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. AC Nagano Parceiro

12 contracts$0

Cluster 2

Fujieda MYFC vs. Fukushima United FC

8 contracts$0

Analysis

This market reflects a 50% probability that Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo will defeat Fujieda MYFC in an upcoming J-League or Japanese football match. The even split suggests neither team has a clear perceived advantage based on current market sentiment. Key drivers of this probability include recent form, head-to-head history, injuries, and home-field status. The market will resolve once the match is played and a final result is determined. Low trading volume ($0 24h) across related contracts suggests limited recent activity and potentially thin liquidity, which may reduce confidence in the accuracy of the current 50% assessment. The exact match date and venue details would be critical for evaluating whether this probability appropriately reflects team capabilities and contextual factors.

  • Recent league standings and points differential between Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo and Fujieda MYFC in their respective divisions or competitions
  • Head-to-head historical record between these two clubs, including results, goal differential, and playing style matchups
  • Confirmed team roster status, including key player injuries, suspensions, or recent transfers that affect squad composition
  • Home versus away designation for the match, as well as venue-specific performance records for each team
  • League position and current form trajectory (wins/losses/draws in last 5-10 matches) for both clubs entering the fixture

What moved the line

  • May 3AC Nagano Parceiro11pp4029¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3Both Teams to Score5pp5055¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3AC Nagano Parceiro (-1.5)5pp3338¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3Fukushima United FC (-1.5)5pp3338¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo (-1.5)3pp3841¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 5 min ago.