Houston Dynamo vs. Colorado Rapids SC - More Markets
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 41% across 19 contracts. Kalshi at 23%, Polymarket at 42% — a 19pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
23%
1 contract
Polymarket
42%
18 contracts
Cross-venue gap
19pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
19 contracts
Closes
May 3, 2026
0 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 23¢ · Polymarket 42¢ · 19pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (23¢, 1 contract) and sell on Polymarket (42¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
8 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 22% of their title tokens — “Utah Royals FC vs. Houston Dash - More Markets” vs “FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: FK Bodø/Glimt”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Utah Royals FC vs. Houston Dash - More Markets
Utah Royals FC vs. Houston Dash - More Markets: Utah Royals FC (-2.5)
0x480bda…7034
Utah Royals FC vs. Houston Dash - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x7cba40…e09c
Utah Royals FC vs. Houston Dash - More Markets: Houston Dash (-2.5)
0xc75506…5e09
Utah Royals FC vs. Houston Dash - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x2113bb…91c8
Utah Royals FC vs. Houston Dash - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xb3384b…c235
Utah Royals FC vs. Houston Dash - More Markets: Houston Dash (-1.5)
0x048577…0f9a
Utah Royals FC vs. Houston Dash - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x5ccc92…b5d5
Utah Royals FC vs. Houston Dash - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x64e235…d0d8
Utah Royals FC vs. Houston Dash - More Markets: Utah Royals FC (-1.5)
0x920c44…2e0b
Cluster 2
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: FK Bodø/Glimt
Cluster 3
Bucheon FC 1995 vs. Jeju SK FC - More Markets: O/U
Cluster 4
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Ulsan HD FC - More Markets: O/U
Cluster 5
Will the number of unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS); S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance; Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix; labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50%; CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release during before July 2028 be above 2
Cluster 6
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC - More Markets: Liaoning Tieren FC
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC - More Markets: Liaoning Tieren FC (-2.5)
0xeacd4b…9c9e
Cluster 7
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x92fa6c…9a3a
Cluster 8
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x5d58f6…ee3d
What moved the line
- May 2O/U 2.5↓12pp53→41¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Liaoning Tieren FC (-2.5)↓6pp12→6¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Liaoning Tieren FC (-2.5)↓5pp17→12¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Houston Dash (-1.5)↑4pp33→37¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Houston Dash (-2.5)↑4pp34→38¢ · Polymarket
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.