SimpleFunctions
20 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 23 min ago

Incheon United FC vs. Gangwon FC

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 33% across 20 Polymarket contracts.

Implied probability

33%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

not bound

Polymarket

33%

20 contracts

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$681

20 contracts

Top contract

49¢

$298 · Polymarket

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 33% (4 days, 4 points)Aggregate: 33% on 2026-05-03
Aggregate of 20 contracts · 4d

Bracket families

5 clusters across 20 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters

The top two clusters share only 13% of their title tokens — “Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC” vs “Fujieda MYFC vs. Fukushima United FC”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.

Cluster 1

Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC

12 contracts$383

Cluster 2

Fujieda MYFC vs. Fukushima United FC

3 contracts$0

Cluster 3

United States vs. Paraguay

2 contracts$298

Cluster 4

FC Imabari vs. Kōchi United SC - More Markets: O/U

2 contracts$0

Cluster 5

Gangwon FC vs. Pohang Steelers FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5

1 contract$0

What moved the line

  • May 2Incheon United FC (-1.5)18pp3517¢ · Polymarket
  • May 2Incheon United FC (-2.5)17pp3518¢ · Polymarket
  • May 2Daejeon Hana Citizen FC (-2.5)14pp3420¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3Incheon United FC (-1.5)8pp1725¢ · Polymarket
  • May 2O/U 2.57pp5245¢ · Polymarket

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 23 min ago.