SimpleFunctions
20 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 4 min ago

Incheon United FC vs. Jeju SK FC

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 35% across 20 Polymarket contracts.

Implied probability

35%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

not bound

Polymarket

35%

20 contracts

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$761

20 contracts

Top contract

49¢

$298 · Polymarket

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 35% (4 days, 4 points)Aggregate: 35% on 2026-05-03
Aggregate of 20 contracts · 4d

Bracket families

5 clusters across 20 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters

The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC” vs “Bucheon FC 1995 vs. Jeju SK FC - More Markets: O/U”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.

Cluster 1

Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC

12 contracts$383

Cluster 2

Bucheon FC 1995 vs. Jeju SK FC - More Markets: O/U

3 contracts$80

Cluster 3

United States vs. Paraguay

2 contracts$298

Cluster 4

FC Imabari vs. Kōchi United SC - More Markets: O/U

2 contracts$0

Cluster 5

Fujieda MYFC vs. Fukushima United FC: Fukushima United FC

1 contract$0

What moved the line

  • May 2Incheon United FC (-1.5)18pp3517¢ · Polymarket
  • May 2Incheon United FC (-2.5)17pp3518¢ · Polymarket
  • May 2Daejeon Hana Citizen FC (-2.5)14pp3420¢ · Polymarket
  • May 2O/U 2.512pp5341¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3Incheon United FC (-1.5)8pp1725¢ · Polymarket

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.