Independiente Medellín vs. CR Flamengo
Leader sits at 47% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 29%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
CR Flamengo
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
29¢
Draw (Independiente Medellín
Spread
18pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 8, 2026
4 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Independiente Medellín vs. CR Flamengo
Analysis
This 30% probability reflects how often traders expect Independiente Medellín and CR Flamengo to finish level in their upcoming match. The market is pricing a draw as the single most likely outcome, ahead of a Flamengo win at 26% and Medellín victory at approximately 44%. The probability is shaped by recent form, head-to-head history, and current squad availability. Factors that would shift this include late-stage injury announcements to either team's key players, weather conditions on match day, or tactical adjustments made in pre-match preparation. The match resolution will occur when the final whistle blows, making the exact date and venue critical for contract settlement. Until then, traders are balancing offensive capabilities against defensive stability for both squads, with the relatively low trading volume suggesting limited confidence in the current price level.
- ›Current squad injury status for both Medellín and Flamengo, particularly in defensive or attacking positions
- ›Recent form record and goal-scoring differential for each team over their last 5-10 matches
- ›Head-to-head historical record and average goals per match between these specific opponents
- ›Match venue and surface conditions, which can favor possession-based or counter-attacking play styles
- ›Pre-match betting line movement from traditional sportsbooks, which may reflect sharp money positioning ahead of kickoff
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 13 min ago.