Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita - More Markets: Ōita Trinita (-1.5)
Leader sits at 60% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 53%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
O/U 1.5
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
53¢
O/U 2.5
Spread
7pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 6, 2026
2 days
Venue
Polymarket
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita - More Markets
Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x439e35…82f7
Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita - More Markets: Kagoshima United FC (-2.5)
0xf7b2d5…42fa
Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita - More Markets: Ōita Trinita (-2.5)
0x181e34…d370
Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0xe0cdd9…7a6d
Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xc0ca93…26cd
Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita - More Markets: Kagoshima United FC (-1.5)
0x9d9d39…1252
Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0xc65258…6bb8
Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita - More Markets: Ōita Trinita (-1.5)
0x88fc7b…35d4
Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x58a705…db3a
Analysis
This market reflects a 34% probability that Ōita Trinita will win by more than 1.5 goals against Kagoshima United FC. The relatively low probability suggests bettors view Kagoshima as the more likely outcome or expect a closer contest. The probability level is driven by each team's recent form, goal-scoring records, and defensive consistency in their respective leagues. The market will resolve when this match is played, making the actual result the single definitive catalyst for settlement. Until kickoff, the probability may shift based on team news, lineup changes, or injury announcements that affect expected goal-scoring capacity.
- ›Ōita Trinita's recent goal differential and win rate versus similarly-ranked opponents in the J-League
- ›Kagoshima United FC's defensive record and conceded-goals average over their last 5-10 matches
- ›Head-to-head historical performance between these two teams, if applicable
- ›Current league standings and momentum—whether either team is in an upward or downward trend
- ›Confirmed player availability: injuries to key forwards (Ōita) or defenders (Kagoshima) that would materially affect expected goals
What moved the line
- May 3Ōita Trinita (-1.5)↑5pp33→38¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Kagoshima United FC (-2.5)↑5pp32→37¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Ōita Trinita (-2.5)↑3pp35→38¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 10 min ago.