Kashiwa Reysol vs. FC Tōkyō
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 30% across 20 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
30%
20 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$10
20 contracts
Top contract
9¢
$10 · Polymarket
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds” vs “Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xde5526…9dbc
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds - More Markets: Urawa Red Diamonds (-1.5)
0xf874fe…2d7f
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: Draw (Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds)
0xbb1d85…f498
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x1ae4fa…7485
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x137a07…5c60
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds - More Markets: Kashiwa Reysol (-1.5)
0x13fca1…9be2
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x8c771d…0d08
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: Urawa Red Diamonds
0xa86687…d447
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x1083aa…04fd
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: Kashiwa Reysol
0x3481b3…7cd2
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds - More Markets: Urawa Red Diamonds (-2.5)
0xc60a6d…d8a2
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds - More Markets: Kashiwa Reysol (-2.5)
0xadcf74…f821
Cluster 2
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets: Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5)
0x2ae2eb…68c8
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets: Tōkyō Verdy (-2.5)
0xe158bd…0a3d
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy: Draw (Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy)
0xae4b3d…8744
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy: Tōkyō Verdy
0x3d1c1d…ae22
Cluster 3
FC Tōkyō vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba
FC Tōkyō vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba - More Markets: FC Tōkyō (-1.5)
0x3724ce…8650
FC Tōkyō vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: FC Tōkyō
0xd5f09f…3626
FC Tōkyō vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x47d52b…9c5a
FC Tōkyō vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba - More Markets: JEF United Ichihara Chiba (-2.5)
0x33b4f0…ef17
What moved the line
- May 3FC Tōkyō↑18pp48→66¢ · Polymarket
- May 3JEF United Ichihara Chiba (-2.5)↑13pp9→22¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Kashiwa Reysol (-1.5)↓8pp37→29¢ · Polymarket
- May 2FC Tōkyō↑7pp41→48¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Tōkyō Verdy (-2.5)↓6pp34→28¢ · Polymarket
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 23 min ago.