Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds - More Markets
Leader sits at 73% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 53%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
O/U 1.5
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
53¢
Both Teams to Score
Spread
20pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 6, 2026
2 days
Venue
Polymarket
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds - More Markets
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xde5526…9dbc
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds - More Markets: Urawa Red Diamonds (-2.5)
0xc60a6d…d8a2
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds - More Markets: Kashiwa Reysol (-2.5)
0xadcf74…f821
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds - More Markets: Urawa Red Diamonds (-1.5)
0xf874fe…2d7f
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds - More Markets: Kashiwa Reysol (-1.5)
0x13fca1…9be2
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x1083aa…04fd
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x8c771d…0d08
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x1ae4fa…7485
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x137a07…5c60
Analysis
This market estimates a 51% probability that both Kashiwa Reysol and Urawa Red Diamonds will score goals in their J-League match. The 51% level reflects modest expectation that both teams will find the net, slightly favoring this outcome over alternatives like a 1-0 scoreline or shutout. The probability is driven primarily by each team's recent offensive output and defensive vulnerabilities in J-League play. The match result itself will resolve the market when the fixture concludes; the timing depends on the scheduled kick-off date. Both teams' form heading into the fixture—particularly injury status of key attackers and defenders—represents the main uncertainty. Additionally, head-to-head patterns between these specific opponents influence expectations about whether defensive or offensive tendencies dominate their matchups.
- ›Kashiwa Reysol's goals-per-game average and defensive record this J-League season versus Urawa Red Diamonds' corresponding metrics
- ›Urawa Red Diamonds' recent form and whether key attacking or defensive players are unavailable due to injury or suspension
- ›Historical frequency of both-teams-to-score outcomes in previous Reysol-Red Diamonds fixtures
- ›Current league-wide offensive efficiency trends and whether defensive tactics have tightened in recent rounds
- ›The scheduled match date and whether weather or pitch conditions typically affect goal-scoring rates in J-League play
What moved the line
- May 3Kashiwa Reysol (-1.5)↓8pp37→29¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Kashiwa Reysol (-2.5)↓4pp32→28¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Urawa Red Diamonds (-2.5)↓4pp28→24¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Urawa Red Diamonds (-1.5)↓3pp28→25¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 6 min ago.