SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 9 outcomes9 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 6 min agoCloses May 6, 2026 · 2d22pp · 11h

Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds - More Markets

Leader sits at 73% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 53%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

73%

O/U 1.5

runner-up 53¢leader 73¢

Outcomes

9

winner-take-all

Runner-up

53¢

Both Teams to Score

Spread

20pp

contested

24h volume

$0

thin orderbook

Closes

May 6, 2026

2 days

Venue

Polymarket

9 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayO/U 1.5: 65% on 2026-05-03Both Teams to Score: 53% on 2026-05-03O/U 2.5: 49% (2 days, 2 points)O/U 2.5: 49% on 2026-05-03
O/U 1.565¢Both Teams to Score53¢O/U 2.549¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 2d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This market estimates a 51% probability that both Kashiwa Reysol and Urawa Red Diamonds will score goals in their J-League match. The 51% level reflects modest expectation that both teams will find the net, slightly favoring this outcome over alternatives like a 1-0 scoreline or shutout. The probability is driven primarily by each team's recent offensive output and defensive vulnerabilities in J-League play. The match result itself will resolve the market when the fixture concludes; the timing depends on the scheduled kick-off date. Both teams' form heading into the fixture—particularly injury status of key attackers and defenders—represents the main uncertainty. Additionally, head-to-head patterns between these specific opponents influence expectations about whether defensive or offensive tendencies dominate their matchups.

  • Kashiwa Reysol's goals-per-game average and defensive record this J-League season versus Urawa Red Diamonds' corresponding metrics
  • Urawa Red Diamonds' recent form and whether key attacking or defensive players are unavailable due to injury or suspension
  • Historical frequency of both-teams-to-score outcomes in previous Reysol-Red Diamonds fixtures
  • Current league-wide offensive efficiency trends and whether defensive tactics have tightened in recent rounds
  • The scheduled match date and whether weather or pitch conditions typically affect goal-scoring rates in J-League play

What moved the line

  • May 3Kashiwa Reysol (-1.5)8pp3729¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3Kashiwa Reysol (-2.5)4pp3228¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3Urawa Red Diamonds (-2.5)4pp2824¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3Urawa Red Diamonds (-1.5)3pp2825¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 6 min ago.