What will Ro Khanna say during Meet the Press
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 53% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
53%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$4K
3 contracts
Top contract
23¢
$1K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 20% of their title tokens — “What will Zohran Mamdani say during next NYC Mayor's Office announcement” vs “What will Bernie Sanders say during Fighting Oligarchy: Where We Go From Here with Bernie Sanders in Detroit”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
What will Zohran Mamdani say during next NYC Mayor's Office announcement
Cluster 2
What will Bernie Sanders say during Fighting Oligarchy: Where We Go From Here with Bernie Sanders in Detroit
What moved the line
- May 3Where We Go From Here with Bernie Sanders in Detroit?: Democracy↑25pp66→91¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Childcare↓9pp38→29¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Knicks↓8pp37→29¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Childcare↑8pp22→30¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Childcare↑8pp30→38¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 8 min ago.