K-League
Leader sits at 50% across 12 bound outcomes, runner-up at 50%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Winner: FC Seoul
Outcomes
12
winner-take-all
Runner-up
50¢
Winner: Ulsan HD
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 20, 2026
230 days
Venue
Polymarket
12 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
K-League: Winner
K-League: Winner: FC Seoul
0x9ed8d1…5c7e
K-League: Winner: Bucheon FC 1995
0xfbdb48…a3df
K-League: Winner: Incheon United
0x50f574…c9eb
K-League: Winner: Jeju SK
0x9f7263…f824
K-League: Winner: Gwangju FC
0x0a21ba…0f07
K-League: Winner: FC Anyang
0x6ea6c6…22ac
K-League: Winner: Gimcheon Sangmu
0xc5f56d…7551
K-League: Winner: Gangwon FC
0x8960b5…f996
K-League: Winner: Daejeon Hana Citizen
0xc8fac7…b8e0
K-League: Winner: Pohang Steelers
0x5640ae…51f5
K-League: Winner: Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors
0xced4df…e508
K-League: Winner: Ulsan HD
0x92558d…a36e
Analysis
This probability represents the market's assessment that Gwangju FC will win the 2026 K-League season, currently priced at 50 cents. The market shows extreme fragmentation across five leading contenders (Gwangju, FC Anyang, Gangwon, Incheon, and Pohang), each trading in a narrow 49-50 cent range, suggesting significant uncertainty about the season's outcome. Contract volume has been minimal over the past 24 hours, indicating limited recent trading activity and potentially incomplete price discovery. The probability could shift upward if Gwangju demonstrates strong performance in upcoming league fixtures, or downward if competing teams improve their standing or Gwangju faces injuries or tactical setbacks. Resolution depends on the final K-League standings when the season concludes later in 2026.
- ›Five contracts are priced within a single cent of each other (49-50¢), indicating the market perceives these teams as near-equally likely winners rather than establishing a clear favorite
- ›Zero trading volume across all top contracts in the past 24 hours suggests low market liquidity and potentially stale pricing that may not reflect recent team performance or roster changes
- ›Gwangju FC and FC Anyang are both priced at exactly 50¢, making them co-leaders rather than establishing a single market leader with conviction
- ›The K-League season runs through late November/early December 2026, meaning approximately seven months of matches remain to resolve the winner and shift probabilities
- ›Combined probability of the five leading contracts exceeds 247¢, indicating the market assigns non-trivial probability to other teams winning the title
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 12 min ago.