Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC
Leader sits at 61% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 24%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Chengdu Rongcheng FC
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
24¢
Draw (Liaoning Tieren FC vs.
Spread
37pp
contested
24h volume
$455
thin orderbook
Closes
May 5, 2026
1 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: Liaoning Tieren FC
0x767937…230b
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: Chengdu Rongcheng FC
0x6c60ac…e575
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: Draw (Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC)
0x096646…ef18
Analysis
Markets currently assess Chengdu Rongcheng FC as the favored winner in this matchup, with a 61% implied probability compared to Liaoning Tieren FC's 19%. The pricing reflects differing views across venues: Polymarket's three contracts show wider spreads, while Kalshi's contract suggests somewhat lower confidence in Liaoning. The gap between Chengdu's 61% and Liaoning's 19% leaves 20% probability for a draw or other outcome. Key factors likely driving this assessment include relative team form, home-field advantage, recent head-to-head results, and squad composition changes. The upcoming match date will provide the definitive resolution, making current probabilities vulnerable to injury announcements, pre-match momentum shifts, or betting information flowing into the market closer to kickoff. Contract volumes vary significantly across venues, indicating fragmented liquidity rather than consensus certainty.
- ›Chengdu Rongcheng FC commanding 61% probability versus Liaoning's 19% suggests market confidence in Chengdu but leaves substantial uncertainty (20% unaccounted for in leader/runner-up)
- ›Volume concentration on Polymarket's Chengdu contract ($390 24h) dwarfs most other contracts, indicating core market activity centers on this specific outcome
- ›Wide spread between Liaoning at 19% on Polymarket but only 15% on Kalshi suggests venue-dependent assessment differences or liquidity fragmentation
- ›Liaoning's -2.5 spread contract trading at only 5¢ implies minimal market conviction that Liaoning wins by multiple goals
- ›Over/Under 2.5 goals at 52¢ suggests expectation of close, low-scoring play rather than blowout, tempering extreme confidence in either team
What moved the line
- May 2Liaoning Tieren FC↓9pp25→16¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Chengdu Rongcheng FC↑5pp60→65¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Chengdu Rongcheng FC↓4pp65→61¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 9 min ago.