Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Leader sits at 77% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 53%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
O/U 1.5
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
53¢
O/U 2.5
Spread
24pp
contested
24h volume
$315
thin orderbook
Closes
May 5, 2026
2 days
Venue
Polymarket
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC - More Markets
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC - More Markets: Liaoning Tieren FC (-2.5)
0xeacd4b…9c9e
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x265119…772e
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x691544…6208
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC - More Markets: Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-2.5)
0x45e030…a07f
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0xd79dfe…f845
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC - More Markets: Liaoning Tieren FC (-1.5)
0x1da10f…ed87
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x821567…77e8
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC - More Markets: Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-1.5)
0x069e2b…e280
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x796d0b…4310
Analysis
This contract reflects a 77% probability that the Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC match will end with over 2.5 goals scored. The high probability suggests the market expects a relatively open, attacking game. Current odds are driven by recent form of both teams, their offensive and defensive capabilities, and historical goal-scoring patterns in Chinese Super League fixtures. The primary uncertainty revolves around team selection, weather conditions, and whether either side prioritizes defensive stability over attacking play. The match itself will definitively resolve this contract upon final whistle, eliminating speculation about total goals scored. Market pricing reflects confidence in a multi-goal outcome rather than a low-scoring contest, though the 53% runner-up probability indicates meaningful disagreement about whether the under-2.5 outcome is possible.
- ›Recent scoring averages for both clubs in league play and head-to-head history
- ›Defensive injury status and lineup adjustments that would affect either team's tactical approach
- ›Historical volatility in over/under 2.5 betting for this matchup, if prior meetings occurred
- ›Weather and field conditions on match day that could impact pace and attacking opportunities
- ›Current league standings and motivation levels, which influence whether teams play to win or minimize risk
What moved the line
- May 2Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-2.5)↓10pp32→22¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Liaoning Tieren FC (-2.5)↓6pp12→6¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Liaoning Tieren FC (-2.5)↓5pp17→12¢ · Polymarket
- May 2O/U 2.5↓3pp56→53¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-1.5)↓3pp36→33¢ · Polymarket
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.