SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 9 outcomes9 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 4 min agoCloses May 5, 2026 · 2d

Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5

Leader sits at 77% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 53%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

77%

O/U 1.5

runner-up 53¢leader 77¢

Outcomes

9

winner-take-all

Runner-up

53¢

O/U 2.5

Spread

24pp

contested

24h volume

$315

thin orderbook

Closes

May 5, 2026

2 days

Venue

Polymarket

9 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayO/U 1.5: 76% (3 days, 3 points)O/U 1.5: 76% on 2026-05-03O/U 2.5: 52% (3 days, 3 points)O/U 2.5: 52% on 2026-05-03Both Teams to Score: 51% (3 days, 3 points)Both Teams to Score: 51% on 2026-05-03
O/U 1.576¢O/U 2.552¢Both Teams to Score51¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 3d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This contract reflects a 77% probability that the Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC match will end with over 2.5 goals scored. The high probability suggests the market expects a relatively open, attacking game. Current odds are driven by recent form of both teams, their offensive and defensive capabilities, and historical goal-scoring patterns in Chinese Super League fixtures. The primary uncertainty revolves around team selection, weather conditions, and whether either side prioritizes defensive stability over attacking play. The match itself will definitively resolve this contract upon final whistle, eliminating speculation about total goals scored. Market pricing reflects confidence in a multi-goal outcome rather than a low-scoring contest, though the 53% runner-up probability indicates meaningful disagreement about whether the under-2.5 outcome is possible.

  • Recent scoring averages for both clubs in league play and head-to-head history
  • Defensive injury status and lineup adjustments that would affect either team's tactical approach
  • Historical volatility in over/under 2.5 betting for this matchup, if prior meetings occurred
  • Weather and field conditions on match day that could impact pace and attacking opportunities
  • Current league standings and motivation levels, which influence whether teams play to win or minimize risk

What moved the line

  • May 2Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-2.5)10pp3222¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3Liaoning Tieren FC (-2.5)6pp126¢ · Polymarket
  • May 2Liaoning Tieren FC (-2.5)5pp1712¢ · Polymarket
  • May 2O/U 2.53pp5653¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-1.5)3pp3633¢ · Polymarket

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.