Liga MX
Leader sits at 46% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 35%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Winner: Pumas UNAM
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
35¢
Winner: Tigres UANL
Spread
11pp
contested
24h volume
$315
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 8, 2026
36 days
Venue
Polymarket
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Liga MX: Winner
Liga MX: Winner: Cruz Azul
0xabb43b…0d0a
Liga MX: Winner: Tigres UANL
0x36d90d…4a71
Liga MX: Winner: Pachuca
0xa29fc1…5410
Liga MX: Winner: Pumas UNAM
0x48763e…380a
Liga MX: Winner: América
0xc08bae…adbc
Liga MX: Winner: Guadalajara
0xf20a78…1731
Liga MX: Winner: Toluca
0x6c9d19…d017
Analysis
This 46% probability represents the market's assessment that a specific team will win the Liga MX Clausura tournament. The leading contract is trading well above the runner-up at 41%, indicating modest confidence in the frontrunner but substantial uncertainty about the final outcome. Liga MX's Clausura season structure means the probability reflects expectations based on current team performance, head-to-head records, and recent form. The gap between the leader and runner-up suggests the market sees distinguishable differences in team strength but not overwhelming dominance. Key drivers include mid-season injuries, recent match results, and playoff positioning as the tournament progresses. Resolution depends on the Clausura's playoff bracket outcomes, with the final match determining the definitive winner and settling all contracts simultaneously.
- ›Current team in contention has moderate but non-dominant implied win probability at 46%, with nearest competitor at 41% market price
- ›Kalshi volume data shows relatively low trading activity ($2056-$4729 per 24h) across top Liga MX-specific contracts, suggesting limited market liquidity or consensus
- ›Leading contract's price reflects 46% implied probability, not a mean across all outcomes; remaining probability distributed among multiple competitors
- ›Recent match performance, defensive injuries, and playoff bracket dynamics will materially shift probabilities as tournament progresses toward final stages
- ›Tournament's specific playoff format (structure and pairings) determines which teams advance, making mid-season positioning less predictive than in round-robin structures
What moved the line
- May 3Winner: Pachuca↑28pp14→42¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 30Winner: Pachuca↓26pp29→3¢ · Polymarket
- May 1Winner: Pachuca↑22pp3→25¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 29Winner: América↓22pp30→8¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 29Winner: Cruz Azul↓20pp34→14¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.