Will Toluca win the Liga MX Clausura

30-day trend

Analysis

This 12% probability indicates that Toluca has roughly a one-in-eight chance of winning the Liga MX Clausura tournament. The market prices Toluca slightly ahead of mid-table contenders like Pumas UNAM but well behind favorites like America (15%). Toluca's probability reflects its historical performance, current squad composition, and position in the league standings at the time of assessment. The main drivers of this estimate are the team's consistency relative to stronger-resourced clubs and any recent injuries or tactical changes. The tournament's group stage and knockout structure will progressively reduce uncertainty as matches are played and teams' form becomes clearer. If Toluca wins crucial early matches or top-favored teams stumble, the probability could shift meaningfully. Conversely, early losses would likely push it lower as elimination becomes more probable.

• ›Toluca's current league position and points total relative to title-contending teams as of early May 2026
• ›Recent match results and win-loss record compared to America, Pachuca, and other favored competitors
• ›Injuries or suspensions affecting Toluca's key players versus the strength of their available squad
• ›Playoff structure mechanics and bracket positioning that determines path to final
• ›Head-to-head historical win rates and goal differential between Toluca and top contenders in similar tournaments

What moved the line

• Apr 26Leon↑68pp2→70¢ · Kalshi
• Apr 27Leon↓40pp70→30¢ · Kalshi
• Apr 28Leon↓20pp30→10¢ · Kalshi
• May 3Pumas UNAM↓11pp20→9¢ · Kalshi
• Apr 27Toluca↑11pp5→16¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds