Winner-take-all · 12 outcomes12 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 23 min ago

Lillestrøm SK vs. FK Bodø/Glimt

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Leader sits at 90% across 12 bound outcomes, runner-up at 75%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

90%

O/U 1.5

0¢runner-up 75¢leader 90¢

Outcomes

winner-take-all

Runner-up

75¢

O/U 2.5

Spread

15pp

contested

24h volume

$166

thin orderbook

Closes

—

not derived

Venue

Polymarket

12 bound

Top contract →Read as answer

30-day trend

O/U 1.590¢O/U 2.574¢FK Bodø/Glimt73¢

Top 3 candidates by current price · 4d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Cluster 1

FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK

12 contracts$166

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: FK Bodø/Glimt (-1.5)

0x879d11…150c

51¢±0$118P→

FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: FK Bodø/Glimt (-2.5)

0x5283a2…dc97

31¢−1pp$35P→

FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: O/U 4.5

0xbba59e…6533

33¢±0$8P→

FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK: Molde FK

0xa52956…22fa

13¢±0$5P→

FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: O/U 2.5

0x27b4e7…a7ed

75¢+1pp$0P→

FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK: Draw (FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK)

0x97e26b…6f2f

16¢−1pp$0P→

FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: Molde FK (-1.5)

0x8e7ca6…3a88

6¢−4pp$0P→

FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: O/U 1.5

0x9d9b18…ae7c

90¢+6pp$0P→

FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: Both Teams to Score

0x935aef…c561

62¢±0$0P→

FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: Molde FK (-2.5)

0x89b8dd…0d69

6¢−1pp$0P→

FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: O/U 3.5

0x85b3e4…0fa1

53¢±0$0P→

FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK: FK Bodø/Glimt

0xe86516…675e

73¢+2pp$0P→

What moved the line

May 2O/U 1.5↑6pp84→90¢ · Polymarket
May 3Molde FK (-1.5)↓4pp10→6¢ · Polymarket
May 1Draw (FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK)↓4pp20→16¢ · Polymarket
May 2Molde FK (-1.5)↓3pp13→10¢ · Polymarket

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 23 min ago.

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