Minnesota United FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 35% across 20 contracts. Kalshi at 41%, Polymarket at 32% — a 9pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
41%
8 contracts
Polymarket
32%
12 contracts
Cross-venue gap
9pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$8K
20 contracts
Top contract
53¢
$2K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 41¢ · Polymarket 32¢ · 9pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (32¢, 12 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (41¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
8 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets” vs “Will Nithya Raman”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets: New York City FC (-1.5)
0x52ecc5…1539
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x0e25b5…6674
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x361d08…fcba
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets: New York City FC (-2.5)
0x749d60…214e
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets: Los Angeles FC (-2.5)
0x8cd527…d5dd
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0xfb53dd…2bf6
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets: Los Angeles FC (-1.5)
0xe4ead2…9aca
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x3b1359…c2a6
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x087e96…4031
Cluster 2
Will Nithya Raman
Will Nithya Raman and Karen Bass be the nominees in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary?: Nithya Raman vs. Karen Bass
KXLAMAYORMATCHUP-26JUN-NRAMKBAS
Will Nithya Raman and Spencer Pratt be the nominees in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary?: Nithya Raman vs. Spencer Pratt
KXLAMAYORMATCHUP-26JUN-NRAMSPRA
Cluster 3
Will Los Angeles Thieves win
Will Los Angeles Thieves win the Los Angeles Thieves vs. Vancouver Surge match?: Los Angeles Thieves
KXCODGAME-26MAY031500LATVAN-LAT
Will Los Angeles Thieves win map 2 in the Los Angeles Thieves vs. Vancouver Surge match?: Los Angeles Thieves
KXCODMAP-26MAY031500LATVAN-2-LAT
Cluster 4
Will Vancouver Surge win
Will Vancouver Surge win the Los Angeles Thieves vs. Vancouver Surge match?: Vancouver Surge
KXCODGAME-26MAY031500LATVAN-VAN
Will Vancouver Surge win map 1 in the Los Angeles Thieves vs. Vancouver Surge match?: Vancouver Surge
KXCODMAP-26MAY031500LATVAN-1-VAN
Cluster 5
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC - More Markets
Cluster 6
Will Karen Bass and Spencer Pratt be the nominees in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary
Cluster 7
Will over 3.5 maps be played in the Los Angeles Thieves vs. Vancouver Surge Call of Duty match
Cluster 8
CD Los Chankas vs. CD Garcilaso - More Markets: O/U 4.5
CD Los Chankas vs. CD Garcilaso - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x34c090…bb23
What moved the line
- May 1Over 3.5 maps↑43pp10→53¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Over 3.5 maps↓23pp56→33¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Incheon United FC (-2.5)↓17pp35→18¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Karen Bass vs. Spencer Pratt↑8pp13→21¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 30Nithya Raman vs. Karen Bass↓7pp58→51¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 5 min ago.