Will Karen Bass and Spencer Pratt be the nominees in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary?

This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 505% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 15.7% on the No side, suggesting the 16¢ price may undervalue the outcome's true probability or reflects very low conviction betting. The sharp 13-cent price decline over seven days (28¢ to 15¢) combined with minimal 24-hour volume of $8.32 indicates thin liquidity and potential vulnerability to large orders, while the modest $1,060.55 open interest and 410-day timeframe suggest this remains a niche prediction with limited market attention ahead of the 2026 primary.

Resolution rules

If Karen Bass and Spencer Pratt advance in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

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