Mirassol FC vs. SC Corinthians Paulista
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 31% across 20 contracts. Kalshi at 33%, Polymarket at 30% — a 3pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
33%
6 contracts
Polymarket
30%
14 contracts
Cross-venue gap
3pp
modest gap
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$987
20 contracts
Closes
May 3, 2026
0 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 33¢ · Polymarket 30¢ · 3pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (30¢, 14 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (33¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
4 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 17% of their title tokens — “Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista” vs “Mirassol vs Corinthians Winner”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista
Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista: SC Corinthians Paulista
0xb8cbca…69e4
Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista - More Markets: SC Corinthians Paulista (-2.5)
0xd92e3c…28a1
Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista: Independiente Santa Fe
0xcf1ee3…1f60
Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista: Draw (Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista)
0x13d4e1…06b7
Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista - More Markets: Independiente Santa Fe (-2.5)
0x40633c…f8d8
Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x13712f…25b6
Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x65835d…d417
Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x96cfcd…1513
Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xd128a4…33d7
Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x5735da…8821
Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista - More Markets: SC Corinthians Paulista (-1.5)
0x71f745…44e7
Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista - More Markets: Independiente Santa Fe (-1.5)
0x559461…3557
Cluster 2
Mirassol vs Corinthians Winner
Cluster 3
Corinthians at Mirassol: Totals: Over
Corinthians at Mirassol: Totals: Over 3.5 goals scored
KXBRASILEIROTOTAL-26MAY03MIRCOR-3
Corinthians at Mirassol: Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored
KXBRASILEIROTOTAL-26MAY03MIRCOR-1
Corinthians at Mirassol: Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored
KXBRASILEIROTOTAL-26MAY03MIRCOR-4
Cluster 4
Mirassol FC vs. LDU de Quito
What moved the line
- Apr 27Mirassol↑11pp26→37¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 28Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored↑11pp51→62¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 29Totals: Over 3.5 goals scored↑10pp8→18¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 27Tie↑5pp21→26¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 29Mirassol↑3pp37→40¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.