Los Angeles D vs San Francisco Total Runs
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 48% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
48%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$338K
20 contracts
Top contract
47¢
$81K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Bracket families
12 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 25% of their title tokens — “New York M vs Los Angeles A Total Runs” vs “Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh Total Runs”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
New York M vs Los Angeles A Total Runs
New York M vs Los Angeles A Total Runs?: Over 8.5 runs scored
KXMLBTOTAL-26MAY031607NYMLAA-9
New York M vs Los Angeles A Total Runs?: Over 10.5 runs scored
KXMLBTOTAL-26MAY031607NYMLAA-11
New York M vs Los Angeles A Total Runs?: Over 4.5 runs scored
KXMLBTOTAL-26MAY031607NYMLAA-5
New York M vs Los Angeles A Total Runs?: Over 12.5 runs scored
KXMLBTOTAL-26MAY031607NYMLAA-13
Cluster 2
Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh Total Runs
Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh Total Runs?: Over 7.5 runs scored
KXMLBTOTAL-26MAY031335CINPIT-8
Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh Total Runs?: Over 11.5 runs scored
KXMLBTOTAL-26MAY031335CINPIT-12
Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh Total Runs?: Over 6.5 runs scored
KXMLBTOTAL-26MAY031335CINPIT-7
Cluster 3
Toronto vs Minnesota Total Runs
Cluster 4
San Francisco vs Tampa Bay Total Runs
Cluster 5
Cleveland vs A's Total Runs
Cluster 6
Milwaukee vs Washington Total Runs
Milwaukee vs Washington Total Runs?: Over 8.5 runs scored
KXMLBTOTAL-26MAY031335MILWSH-9
Cluster 7
Philadelphia vs Miami Total Runs
Philadelphia vs Miami Total Runs?: Over 8.5 runs scored
KXMLBTOTAL-26MAY031340PHIMIA-9
Cluster 8
Baltimore vs New York Y Total Runs
Baltimore vs New York Y Total Runs?: Over 8.5 runs scored
KXMLBTOTAL-26MAY031335BALNYY-9
Cluster 9
Atlanta vs Colorado Total Runs
Atlanta vs Colorado Total Runs?: Over 10.5 runs scored
KXMLBTOTAL-26MAY031510ATLCOL-11
Cluster 10
Los Angeles D vs St. Louis Total Runs
Los Angeles D vs St. Louis Total Runs?: Over 9.5 runs scored
KXMLBTOTAL-26MAY031415LADSTL-10
Cluster 11
Kansas City vs Seattle Total Runs
Kansas City vs Seattle Total Runs?: Over 7.5 runs scored
KXMLBTOTAL-26MAY031610KCSEA-8
Cluster 12
Chicago WS vs San Diego Total Runs
Chicago WS vs San Diego Total Runs?: Over 7.5 runs scored
KXMLBTOTAL-26MAY031610CWSSD-8
What moved the line
- May 3Over 7.5 runs scored↑4pp52→56¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Over 7.5 runs scored↑3pp50→53¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Over 10.5 runs scored↑3pp32→35¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 9 min ago.