Modern SC vs. Tala'ea El Gaish SC
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 27% across 14 contracts. Kalshi at 50%, Polymarket at 24% — a 26pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
50%
2 contracts
Polymarket
24%
12 contracts
Cross-venue gap
26pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
14 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
182 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 50¢ · Polymarket 24¢ · 26pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (24¢, 12 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (50¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
2 clusters across 14 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Tala'ea El Gaish SC vs. Ghazl El Mahalla SC” vs “Will Dem Nominee be James Talarico AND GOP Nominee”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Tala'ea El Gaish SC vs. Ghazl El Mahalla SC
Tala'ea El Gaish SC vs. Ghazl El Mahalla SC - More Markets: Ghazl El Mahalla SC (-2.5)
0x058269…1b16
Tala'ea El Gaish SC vs. Ghazl El Mahalla SC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xf2f172…fbe5
Tala'ea El Gaish SC vs. Ghazl El Mahalla SC: Ghazl El Mahalla SC
0x052b58…a59e
Tala'ea El Gaish SC vs. Ghazl El Mahalla SC: Draw (Tala'ea El Gaish SC vs. Ghazl El Mahalla SC)
0x0fc637…0787
Tala'ea El Gaish SC vs. Ghazl El Mahalla SC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xbba7de…c1f0
Tala'ea El Gaish SC vs. Ghazl El Mahalla SC - More Markets: Tala'ea El Gaish SC (-2.5)
0xc72274…aff4
Tala'ea El Gaish SC vs. Ghazl El Mahalla SC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x5e259b…9efe
Tala'ea El Gaish SC vs. Ghazl El Mahalla SC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x7b51f5…9166
Tala'ea El Gaish SC vs. Ghazl El Mahalla SC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x288ff0…3634
Tala'ea El Gaish SC vs. Ghazl El Mahalla SC - More Markets: Ghazl El Mahalla SC (-1.5)
0x38d77b…87c4
Tala'ea El Gaish SC vs. Ghazl El Mahalla SC - More Markets: Tala'ea El Gaish SC (-1.5)
0xcfd8ae…56c9
Tala'ea El Gaish SC vs. Ghazl El Mahalla SC: Tala'ea El Gaish SC
0xf309d5…6b6b
Cluster 2
Will Dem Nominee be James Talarico AND GOP Nominee
Will Dem Nominee be James Talarico AND GOP Nominee be Ken Paxton for Nov 2026?: Talarico vs. Paxton
KXTXSENCOMBO-26NOV-TALPAX
Will Dem Nominee be James Talarico AND GOP Nominee be John Cornyn for Nov 2026?: Talarico vs. Cornyn
KXTXSENCOMBO-26NOV-TALCOR
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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