Molde FK vs. Vålerenga Fotball - More Markets: Vålerenga Fotball (-2.5)
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 44% across 19 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
44%
19 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$702
19 contracts
Top contract
3¢
$306 · Polymarket
30-day trend
Bracket families
7 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 22% of their title tokens — “FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets” vs “Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC - More Markets”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: FK Bodø/Glimt (-1.5)
0x879d11…150c
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: FK Bodø/Glimt (-2.5)
0x5283a2…dc97
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xbba59e…6533
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: Molde FK (-1.5)
0x8e7ca6…3a88
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: Molde FK (-2.5)
0x89b8dd…0d69
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x9d9b18…ae7c
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x935aef…c561
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x27b4e7…a7ed
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x85b3e4…0fa1
Cluster 2
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC - More Markets
Cluster 3
Bucheon FC 1995 vs. Jeju SK FC - More Markets: O/U
Cluster 4
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Ulsan HD FC - More Markets: O/U
Cluster 5
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC - More Markets
Cluster 6
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x92fa6c…9a3a
Cluster 7
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x8c7c03…b8bb
What moved the line
- May 2Incheon United FC (-2.5)↓17pp35→18¢ · Polymarket
- May 2O/U 2.5↓12pp53→41¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Liaoning Tieren FC (-2.5)↓6pp12→6¢ · Polymarket
- May 2O/U 1.5↑6pp84→90¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Liaoning Tieren FC (-2.5)↓5pp17→12¢ · Polymarket
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 23 min ago.