Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka
Leader sits at 39% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 35%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Nagoya Grampus
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
35¢
Gamba Ōsaka
Spread
4pp
contested
24h volume
$5
thin orderbook
Closes
May 6, 2026
2 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka
Analysis
The 45% probability indicates that Nagoya Grampus is favored to win an upcoming match against Gamba Ōsaka, though the outcome remains genuinely uncertain. The market pricing reflects Nagoya's slight advantage—likely based on recent form, head-to-head record, or home-field status—but positions this as closer to a toss-up than a lopsided contest. The resolution depends on the scheduled match result, with secondary markets suggesting the margin of victory also carries predictive value. Shifts in this probability would typically follow team news (injuries, lineup changes), betting volume from informed participants, or late odds movements from professional syndicates.
- ›Nagoya Grampus's current league position and recent performance record versus Gamba Ōsaka's form heading into the fixture
- ›Home-field advantage, if applicable, and historical head-to-head outcomes between these two J-League clubs
- ›Injury status and squad availability for both teams in the days leading up to kick-off
- ›Betting volume and sharp money movement on polymarket and Kalshi contracts, indicating informed participant conviction
- ›Market disagreement across platforms (Polymarket 46% vs. Kalshi 14%) suggests either different underlying assumptions or illiquidity at one venue
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 13 min ago.