Will Ty Gibbs be the Jack Link's 500 Winner
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 8% across 11 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
8%
11 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$718K
11 contracts
Closes
Feb 22, 2027
295 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
11 clusters across 11 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Carson Hocevar be the Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY Winner
Will Carson Hocevar be the Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY Winner?: Carson Hocevar
KXNASCARRACE-WR4PBL26-CAHO
Cluster 2
Will Kyle Larson be the Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY Winner
Will Kyle Larson be the Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY Winner?: Kyle Larson
KXNASCARRACE-WR4PBL26-KYLA
Cluster 3
Will William Byron be the Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY Winner
Will William Byron be the Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY Winner?: William Byron
KXNASCARRACE-WR4PBL26-WIBY
Cluster 4
Will Chase Briscoe be the Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY Winner
Will Chase Briscoe be the Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY Winner?: Chase Briscoe
KXNASCARRACE-WR4PBL26-CHBR
Cluster 5
Will Ty Gibbs be the Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY Winner
Will Ty Gibbs be the Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY Winner?: Ty Gibbs
KXNASCARRACE-WR4PBL26-TYGI
Cluster 6
Will Denny Hamlin be the Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY Winner
Will Denny Hamlin be the Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY Winner?: Denny Hamlin
KXNASCARRACE-WR4PBL26-DEHA
Cluster 7
Will Chase Elliott be the Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY Winner
Will Chase Elliott be the Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY Winner?: Chase Elliott
KXNASCARRACE-WR4PBL26-CHEL
Cluster 8
Will Christopher Bell be the Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY Winner
Will Christopher Bell be the Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY Winner?: Christopher Bell
KXNASCARRACE-WR4PBL26-CHBE
Cluster 9
Will Tyler Reddick be the Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY Winner
Will Tyler Reddick be the Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY Winner?: Tyler Reddick
KXNASCARRACE-WR4PBL26-TYRE
Cluster 10
Will Ryan Blaney be the Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY Winner
Will Ryan Blaney be the Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY Winner?: Ryan Blaney
KXNASCARRACE-WR4PBL26-RYBL
Cluster 11
Will Chris Buescher be the Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY Winner
Will Chris Buescher be the Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY Winner?: Chris Buescher
KXNASCARRACE-WR4PBL26-CHBU
What moved the line
- May 2Carson Hocevar↑4pp5→9¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Denny Hamlin↑4pp10→14¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Chase Elliott↑4pp5→9¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 28William Byron↑3pp3→6¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Chase Elliott↓3pp9→6¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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