NBA Coach of the Year Winner
Leader sits at 94% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 6%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Joe Mazzulla
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
6¢
JB Bickerstaff
Spread
88pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$9K
modest
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
52 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
NBA Coach of the Year Winner: J
Analysis
This 94% probability reflects strong market consensus that Joe Mazzulla will win the 2026 NBA Coach of the Year award. The high probability is primarily driven by the Boston Celtics' regular season performance and playoff success, with JB Bickerstaff of the Cleveland Cavaliers representing the main alternative. The market assigns less than 6% combined probability to all other coaches. The season's final outcomes and voting by NBA media members, coaches, and players will determine the winner, typically announced in June following the playoffs. Contract volume shows significant trading interest, particularly on Kalshi and Polymarket, with Joe Mazzulla's contracts trading at substantially higher prices than Bickerstaff's. The resolution hinges on complete regular season statistics, playoff performance, and the official award voting that occurs after the season concludes.
- ›Joe Mazzulla's contracts trade at 94¢ compared to JB Bickerstaff's 3-6¢, indicating the market has priced approximately 16:1 odds favoring Mazzulla
- ›Total contract volume exceeds $136,000 in 24-hour trading, with Mazzulla contracts accounting for approximately 75% of that volume, suggesting concentrated confidence rather than broad consensus
- ›Bickerstaff's 3-6¢ pricing represents meaningful residual probability, indicating the market acknowledges Cavaliers performance or voter sentiment could shift the outcome
- ›The 94% probability level leaves 6% for all other coaches combined (approximately 30 total NBA coaches), reflecting extreme concentration on two candidates
- ›Voting occurs post-season, so regular season performance through season-end and playoff results remain the primary unresolved variables affecting both candidates' cases
What moved the line
- May 6JB Bickerstaff↓4pp7→3¢ · Polymarket
- May 8Joe Mazzulla↑3pp95→98¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (94% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In sports
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.