SimpleFunctions
Sports1 contractPolymarketrefreshed 10 min agoCloses Jun 30, 2026 · 52d

NBA Coach of the Year Winner: JB Bickerstaff

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 6% across 1 Polymarket contracts.

Implied probability

6%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

not bound

Polymarket

6%

1 contract

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$5K

1 contracts

Closes

Jun 30, 2026

52 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 4% (27 days, 27 points)Aggregate: 4% on 2026-05-07
Aggregate of 1 contract · 27d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Cluster 1

NBA Coach of the Year Winner: JB Bickerstaff

1 contract$5K

Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that JB Bickerstaff will win the 2026 NBA Coach of the Year award. At 6%, the market views him as a significant underdog compared to Joe Mazzulla, whose contract prices around 94%. The low probability likely reflects either Bickerstaff's team performance relative to preseason expectations or Mazzulla's strong early-season results with the Boston Celtics. The primary driver of this probability will be regular-season performance metrics: win-loss record, team improvement year-over-year, and playoff seeding. The 2025-26 season concludes in April 2026, with the Coach of the Year award announced typically in June. Market participants would reassess this probability based on updated standings, individual team trajectories, and comparative performance of other coaching candidates throughout the season. The final resolution depends on voting by media members and fan participation in the official NBA award process.

  • Bickerstaff's team's current win-loss record and playoff position relative to preseason projections
  • Year-over-year improvement in wins and team performance compared to the prior season
  • Relative performance and win totals of competing coaching candidates, particularly Joe Mazzulla and the Boston Celtics
  • Media narrative and voter sentiment as reflected in mid-season and end-of-season coverage
  • Whether Bickerstaff's team makes the playoffs and their seed, which historically correlates with Coach of the Year voting

What moved the line

  • May 6JB Bickerstaff4pp73¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in sports

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

Lateral coverage

Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.

This page aggregates 1 contract (6% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 10 min ago.