Houston vs Los Angeles L
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 36% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
36%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$90K
20 contracts
Closes
May 9, 2026
5 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Orlando vs Detroit: First Half Total
Orlando vs Detroit: First Half Total?: Over 102.5 1H points scored
KXNBA1HTOTAL-26MAY03ORLDET-102
Orlando vs Detroit: First Half Total?: Over 105.5 1H points scored
KXNBA1HTOTAL-26MAY03ORLDET-105
Orlando vs Detroit: First Half Total?: Over 99.5 1H points scored
KXNBA1HTOTAL-26MAY03ORLDET-99
Orlando vs Detroit: First Half Total?: Over 108.5 1H points scored
KXNBA1HTOTAL-26MAY03ORLDET-108
Orlando vs Detroit: First Half Total?: Over 96.5 1H points scored
KXNBA1HTOTAL-26MAY03ORLDET-96
Orlando vs Detroit: First Half Total?: Over 114.5 1H points scored
KXNBA1HTOTAL-26MAY03ORLDET-114
Orlando vs Detroit: First Half Total?: Over 93.5 1H points scored
KXNBA1HTOTAL-26MAY03ORLDET-93
Orlando vs Detroit: First Half Total?: Over 117.5 1H points scored
KXNBA1HTOTAL-26MAY03ORLDET-117
Cluster 2
Toronto vs Cleveland: First Half Total
Toronto vs Cleveland: First Half Total?: Over 102.5 1H points scored
KXNBA1HTOTAL-26MAY03TORCLE-102
Toronto vs Cleveland: First Half Total?: Over 105.5 1H points scored
KXNBA1HTOTAL-26MAY03TORCLE-105
Toronto vs Cleveland: First Half Total?: Over 99.5 1H points scored
KXNBA1HTOTAL-26MAY03TORCLE-99
Toronto vs Cleveland: First Half Total?: Over 114.5 1H points scored
KXNBA1HTOTAL-26MAY03TORCLE-114
Toronto vs Cleveland: First Half Total?: Over 117.5 1H points scored
KXNBA1HTOTAL-26MAY03TORCLE-117
Toronto vs Cleveland: First Half Total?: Over 93.5 1H points scored
KXNBA1HTOTAL-26MAY03TORCLE-93
Toronto vs Cleveland: First Half Total?: Over 96.5 1H points scored
KXNBA1HTOTAL-26MAY03TORCLE-96
Cluster 3
Los Angeles L vs Oklahoma City: First Half Total
Los Angeles L vs Oklahoma City: First Half Total?: Over 112.5 1H points scored
KXNBA1HTOTAL-26MAY05LALOKC-112
Los Angeles L vs Oklahoma City: First Half Total?: Over 118.5 1H points scored
KXNBA1HTOTAL-26MAY05LALOKC-118
Los Angeles L vs Oklahoma City: First Half Total?: Over 115.5 1H points scored
KXNBA1HTOTAL-26MAY05LALOKC-115
Cluster 4
Minnesota vs San Antonio: First Half Total
What moved the line
- May 3First Half Total?: Over 96.5 1H points scored↓28pp69→41¢ · Kalshi
- May 3First Half Total?: Over 93.5 1H points scored↑9pp22→31¢ · Kalshi
- May 3First Half Total?: Over 117.5 1H points scored↑7pp2→9¢ · Kalshi
- May 3First Half Total?: Over 99.5 1H points scored↓4pp60→56¢ · Kalshi
- May 3First Half Total?: Over 99.5 1H points scored↓4pp58→54¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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