SimpleFunctions
20 contractsKalshirefreshed just nowCloses May 9, 2026 · 5d

Houston vs Los Angeles L

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 36% across 20 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

36%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

36%

20 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$90K

20 contracts

Closes

May 9, 2026

5 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 37% (2 days, 2 points)Aggregate: 37% on 2026-05-03
Aggregate of 20 contracts · 2d

Bracket families

4 clusters across 20 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Orlando vs Detroit: First Half Total

8 contracts$84K

Cluster 2

Toronto vs Cleveland: First Half Total

7 contracts$6K

Cluster 3

Los Angeles L vs Oklahoma City: First Half Total

3 contracts$3

Cluster 4

Minnesota vs San Antonio: First Half Total

2 contracts$21

What moved the line

  • May 3First Half Total?: Over 96.5 1H points scored28pp6941¢ · Kalshi
  • May 3First Half Total?: Over 93.5 1H points scored9pp2231¢ · Kalshi
  • May 3First Half Total?: Over 117.5 1H points scored7pp29¢ · Kalshi
  • May 3First Half Total?: Over 99.5 1H points scored4pp6056¢ · Kalshi
  • May 3First Half Total?: Over 99.5 1H points scored4pp5854¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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