Denver vs Minnesota
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 35% across 13 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
35%
13 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$37K
13 contracts
Top contract
28¢
$14K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 13 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Orlando vs Detroit: First Half Winner
Orlando vs Detroit: First Half Winner?: Orlando wins 1st half
KXNBA1HWINNER-26MAY03ORLDET-ORL
Orlando vs Detroit: First Half Winner?: Detroit wins 1st half
KXNBA1HWINNER-26MAY03ORLDET-DET
Orlando vs Detroit: First Half Winner?: Tie
KXNBA1HWINNER-26MAY03ORLDET-TIE
Cluster 2
Toronto vs Cleveland: First Half Winner
Toronto vs Cleveland: First Half Winner?: Tie
KXNBA1HWINNER-26MAY03TORCLE-TIE
Toronto vs Cleveland: First Half Winner?: Toronto wins 1st half
KXNBA1HWINNER-26MAY03TORCLE-TOR
Toronto vs Cleveland: First Half Winner?: Cleveland wins 1st half
KXNBA1HWINNER-26MAY03TORCLE-CLE
Cluster 3
Minnesota vs San Antonio: First Half Winner
Minnesota vs San Antonio: First Half Winner?: San Antonio wins 1st half
KXNBA1HWINNER-26MAY04MINSAS-SAS
Minnesota vs San Antonio: First Half Winner?: Minnesota wins 1st half
KXNBA1HWINNER-26MAY04MINSAS-MIN
Minnesota vs San Antonio: First Half Winner?: Tie
KXNBA1HWINNER-26MAY04MINSAS-TIE
Cluster 4
Los Angeles L vs Oklahoma City: First Half Winner
Cluster 5
Philadelphia vs New York: First Half Winner
What moved the line
- May 3First Half Winner?: San Antonio wins 1st half↓7pp71→64¢ · Kalshi
- May 3First Half Winner?: Toronto wins 1st half↑5pp23→28¢ · Kalshi
- May 3First Half Winner?: Orlando wins 1st half↑4pp24→28¢ · Kalshi
- May 2First Half Winner?: San Antonio wins 1st half↓4pp75→71¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 5 min ago.