Orlando vs Detroit
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 31% across 10 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
31%
10 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$682
10 contracts
Closes
May 17, 2026
14 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 10 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Orlando vs Detroit: Second Half Winner
Cluster 2
Toronto vs Cleveland: Second Half Winner
Cluster 3
Minnesota vs San Antonio: Second Half Winner
Cluster 4
Los Angeles L vs Oklahoma City: Second Half Winner
Cluster 5
Philadelphia vs New York: Second Half Winner
What moved the line
- May 3Second Half Winner?: Orlando wins 2nd half↑6pp19→25¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Second Half Winner?: Detroit wins 2nd half↑5pp44→49¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Second Half Winner?: Cleveland wins 2nd half↑3pp42→45¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.