SimpleFunctions
Sports1 contractKalshirefreshed 2 min agoCloses Jun 20, 2026 · 42d

Will Timothée Chalamet attend Game 2: 76ers vs Knicks

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 10% across 1 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

10%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

10%

1 contract

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$18

1 contracts

Closes

Jun 20, 2026

42 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 10% (3 days, 3 points)Aggregate: 10% on 2026-05-08
Aggregate of 1 contract · 3d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Cluster 1

Will Sabrina Carpenter attend any Knicks playoff game

1 contract$18

Analysis

This market estimates an 79% likelihood that actor Timothée Chalamet will attend Game 2 of an NBA Eastern Conference playoff series between the Philadelphia 76ers and New York Knicks. The high probability reflects Chalamet's documented history of attending major NBA games, particularly in New York where he maintains a residence. The estimate could shift based on his documented schedule, travel commitments, or any public statements about his attendance. The market will resolve definitively when Game 2 occurs and attendance is confirmed or refuted through official channels, broadcasters, or credible reporting. Trading activity on this contract ($1,043 in 24-hour volume) suggests moderate market interest, though liquidity trails similar celebrity attendance markets for higher-profile attendees like Spike Lee and Ben Stiller.

  • Chalamet's documented attendance pattern at New York-area sporting events over the past 3-5 years
  • Any public statements or social media posts from Chalamet regarding his schedule or attendance plans during the series dates
  • Game 2's scheduled date and time relative to Chalamet's known film production or promotional commitments
  • Historical precedent comparing his attendance rates at Knicks playoff games versus regular season games
  • Comparison to comparable markets showing how celebrity attendance probabilities have resolved in recent NBA playoffs

What moved the line

  • May 7Yes3pp58¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in sports

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

Lateral coverage

Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.

This page aggregates 1 contract (10% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.