Will Miami be awarded with a top 5 pick in the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft Lottery
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 31% across 19 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
31%
19 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
−1pp
12h ago
24h volume
$386
19 contracts
Closes
May 25, 2026
21 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
14 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Washington be awarded with a top
Cluster 2
Will Atlanta be awarded with a top
Cluster 3
Will Brooklyn be awarded with a top
Cluster 4
Will Golden State be awarded with a top
Cluster 5
Will Utah be awarded with a top
Cluster 6
Will Indiana be awarded with a top 5 pick in the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft Lottery
Will Indiana be awarded with a top 5 pick in the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft Lottery?: Indiana
KXNBALOTTERY-26T5-IND
Cluster 7
Will Charlotte be awarded with a top 5 pick in the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft Lottery
Will Charlotte be awarded with a top 5 pick in the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft Lottery?: Charlotte
KXNBALOTTERY-26T5-CHA
Cluster 8
Will Sacramento be awarded with a top 5 pick in the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft Lottery
Will Sacramento be awarded with a top 5 pick in the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft Lottery?: Sacramento
KXNBALOTTERY-26T5-SAC
Cluster 9
Will Chicago be awarded with a top 5 pick in the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft Lottery
Will Chicago be awarded with a top 5 pick in the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft Lottery?: Chicago
KXNBALOTTERY-26T5-CHI
Cluster 10
Will Memphis be awarded with a top 5 pick in the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft Lottery
Will Memphis be awarded with a top 5 pick in the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft Lottery?: Memphis
KXNBALOTTERY-26T5-MEM
Cluster 11
Will Dallas be awarded with a top 5 pick in the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft Lottery
Will Dallas be awarded with a top 5 pick in the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft Lottery?: Dallas
KXNBALOTTERY-26T5-DAL
Cluster 12
Will Milwaukee be awarded with a top 5 pick in the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft Lottery
Will Milwaukee be awarded with a top 5 pick in the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft Lottery?: Milwaukee
KXNBALOTTERY-26T5-MIL
Cluster 13
Will Miami be awarded with a top 5 pick in the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft Lottery
Will Miami be awarded with a top 5 pick in the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft Lottery?: Miami
KXNBALOTTERY-26T5-MIA
Cluster 14
Will Los Angeles C be awarded with a top 5 pick in the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft Lottery
Analysis
A 32% probability indicates Miami has roughly a one-in-three chance of receiving a top-5 draft pick in the 2026 NBA Lottery, which takes place after the regular season concludes in April 2026. This probability reflects Miami's current standing among teams with lottery odds—teams that either missed the playoffs or finished with poor records. The probability level is driven primarily by Miami's actual win-loss record and corresponding lottery odds, set by the NBA based on regular-season performance. The lottery drawing itself, scheduled for late May 2026, is the decisive event that will resolve this outcome. Market participants are pricing in Miami's baseline odds while accounting for any trades, injuries, or roster changes that could affect final standings. Compared to other tracked teams, Miami's 32% probability places it in the middle tier of lottery contenders, above Golden State and Charlotte but below Indiana.
- ›Miami's final 2025-26 regular season record directly determines their lottery odds; each additional win reduces their probability of top-5 placement
- ›The NBA Lottery drawing on May 22, 2026 is the sole determining event; no other outcomes factor into resolution
- ›Miami's current inventory of draft assets and any mid-season trades could theoretically alter playoff position, affecting lottery qualification
- ›Comparative odds across tracked teams show Indiana (47%) and Sacramento (29%) as more favored for top-5 picks, suggesting Miami's standing among lottery teams
- ›Market trading volume of $94k on the comparable Oklahoma City top-3 contract indicates active interest in lottery outcomes, while Miami's volume reflects moderate participant engagement
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 9 min ago.