SimpleFunctions
SportsWinner-take-all · 11 outcomes11 contractsKalshirefreshed 3 min agoCloses Jun 1, 2026 · 23d

Will the first road win of the series be in Game 3

Leader sits at 79% across 11 bound outcomes, runner-up at 77%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

79%

Game 3

runner-up 77¢leader 79¢

Outcomes

11

winner-take-all

Runner-up

77¢

Game 3

Spread

2pp

contested

24h volume

$12K

liquid

Closes

Jun 1, 2026

23 days

Venue

Kalshi

11 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayGame 3: 48% (5 days, 3 points)Game 3: 48% on 2026-05-08Game 3: 63% (5 days, 5 points)Game 3: 63% on 2026-05-08Game 3: 27% (5 days, 3 points)Game 3: 27% on 2026-05-08
Game 348¢Game 363¢Game 327¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 5d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

What moved the line

  • May 3Game 332pp1345¢ · Kalshi
  • May 6Game 316pp4561¢ · Kalshi
  • May 3Game 48pp210¢ · Kalshi
  • May 8Game 68pp412¢ · Kalshi
  • May 6Game 46pp1016¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in sports

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.