Will the first road win of the series be in Game 3
Leader sits at 79% across 11 bound outcomes, runner-up at 77%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Game 3
Outcomes
11
winner-take-all
Runner-up
77¢
Game 3
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$12K
liquid
Closes
Jun 1, 2026
23 days
Venue
Kalshi
11 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the first road win of the series
Will the first road win of the series be in Game 3?: Game 3
KXNBASERIESROADWIN-26PHINYKR2-3
Will the first road win of the series be in Game 3?: Game 3
KXNBASERIESROADWIN-26LALOKCR2-3
Will the first road win of the series be in Game 4?: Game 4
KXNBASERIESROADWIN-26LALOKCR2-4
Will the first road win of the series be in Game 3?: Game 3
KXNBASERIESROADWIN-26CLEDETR2-3
Will the first road win of the series be in Game 6?: Game 6
KXNBASERIESROADWIN-26PHINYKR2-6
Will the first road win of the series be in Game 5?: Game 5
KXNBASERIESROADWIN-26CLEDETR2-5
Will the first road win of the series be in Game 6?: Game 6
KXNBASERIESROADWIN-26CLEDETR2-6
Will the first road win of the series be in Game 4?: Game 4
KXNBASERIESROADWIN-26CLEDETR2-4
Will the first road win of the series not happen?: No road wins during series
KXNBASERIESROADWIN-26CLEDETR2-NONE
Will the first road win of the series be in Game 7?: Game 7
KXNBASERIESROADWIN-26PHINYKR2-7
Will the first road win of the series be in Game 6?: Game 6
KXNBASERIESROADWIN-26LALOKCR2-6
What moved the line
- May 3Game 3↑32pp13→45¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Game 3↑16pp45→61¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Game 4↑8pp2→10¢ · Kalshi
- May 8Game 6↑8pp4→12¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Game 4↑6pp10→16¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.