Top Global Netflix Show on Apr 27, 2026
Leader sits at 61% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 6%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Man on Fire: Season 1
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
6¢
Running Point: Season 2
Spread
55pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$14K
liquid
Closes
—
not derived
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Top Global Netflix Show on May 4, 2026
Top Global Netflix Show on May 4, 2026?: Man on Fire: Season 1
KXNETFLIXRANKSHOWGLOBAL-26MAY04-MAN
Top Global Netflix Show on May 4, 2026?: Unchosen: Season 1
KXNETFLIXRANKSHOWGLOBAL-26MAY04-UNC
Top Global Netflix Show on May 4, 2026?: Running Point: Season 2
KXNETFLIXRANKSHOWGLOBAL-26MAY04-RUN
Top Global Netflix Show on May 4, 2026?: Trust Me: The False Prophet: Season 1
KXNETFLIXRANKSHOWGLOBAL-26MAY04-TRU
Top Global Netflix Show on May 4, 2026?: Million Dollar Secret: Season 2
KXNETFLIXRANKSHOWGLOBAL-26MAY04-MIL
Top Global Netflix Show on May 4, 2026?: Hulk Hogan: Real American: Limited Series
KXNETFLIXRANKSHOWGLOBAL-26MAY04-HUL
What moved the line
- May 1Man on Fire: Season 1↑35pp26→61¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 30Man on Fire: Season 1↑15pp11→26¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Man on Fire: Season 1↓11pp60→49¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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